This article is transferred from: First Finance and Economics
In the first quarter, foreign trade continued to grow at double digits
Author: Miao Qi
According to customs statistics, in the first quarter of this year, the total value of my country’s import and export of goods trade was 9.42 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%. Among them, exports were 5.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.4%; imports were 4.19 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.5%.
At a press conference on April 13, Li Kuiwen, spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs and director of the Statistics and Analysis Department, said that this is the seventh consecutive quarter that my country’s foreign trade imports and exports have maintained positive year-on-year growth. The first quarter of this year increased by more than 10% year-on-year, achieving a “stable start” and laying a good foundation for achieving the annual goal.
“At present, there are some unexpected factors in the international and domestic environment that exceed expectations. The external environment in which my country’s foreign trade is located has become more severe and complex, and development is also facing many risks and challenges.” Li Kuiwen proposed that adding factors such as last year’s high base, from the monthly situation, The overall growth rate of imports and exports has declined. However, my country’s foreign trade has strong resilience and great potential, and it still has a solid foundation for the steady growth of foreign trade.
The epidemic puts pressure on foreign trade
The impact of the upgrade of epidemic control in many parts of the country on the supply chain and foreign trade has attracted much attention.
When answering questions from reporters, Li Kuiwen pointed out that the recent local epidemic has occurred frequently, which has put greater pressure on the production and operation of some enterprises and the stability of the supply chain. As for the impact on foreign trade, the General Administration of Customs has also been keeping a close eye on it.
“For example, everyone is now paying more attention to the relevant situation in Shanghai. Shanghai Customs has also recently released ten measures to fight the epidemic, protect people’s livelihood and help enterprises to promote development.” He said that starting from March 9, Shanghai Customs will be in Pudong Airport, foreign countries Key subordinate customs such as Hong Kong and Yangshan took the lead in implementing the “AB class” working system. On the basis of doing their best to protect internal security, they cooperated with other port units to ensure the safety and smoothness of Shanghai ports.
Wei Jianguo, former vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce and vice chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchange, pointed out in an exclusive interview with China Business News that the current foreign trade industry is facing the “three shortages” problems: lack of cabinets, lack of personnel, and lack of funds. Among them, the cabinets of sea, land, air and rail are very tight, and the China-Europe train, which could have supplemented some capacity, was also difficult to transport due to the impact of the Ukraine crisis. The shortage of people is because the domestic epidemic prevention and control cannot be upgraded to jobs, and because the overall supply chain is blocked, the capital turnover speed of the company has also dropped significantly. Therefore, the government should focus on providing bailout policies for enterprises to ease the financial pressure.
As an operator in the field of international logistics, Cai Chengyu, president of Xiamen Huashang Zongheng Venture Capital Co., Ltd., told Yicai that the epidemic has brought a global and comprehensive impact on the national supply chain, and the freight volume of the logistics industry has dropped significantly recently. . Not only do companies lack containers, but those goods that are obviously eager to export cannot be delivered to ports or airports in time, often making flights or ships “empty”. Data often has a certain lag, and the industry has already felt intuitive. Even if the impact of the epidemic is alleviated, the recovery of the entire supply chain will still face a lag of 1 to 2 months.
Zhou Shihao, CEO of China’s one-stop international logistics service platform “Shipping to Where” previously told China Business News that the recent export volume is estimated to have dropped by 30% to 40%.
Slowing but good long-term growth
According to Zheng Houcheng, director of the British University Securities Research Institute, looking forward to April, the economic sanctions and counter-sanctions between Western countries and Russia caused by the Ukraine crisis will continue to escalate, which will likely be negative for the global macro economy. It is expected that the global JPMorgan Chase manufacturing PMI is likely to be under pressure, and it is marginally negative for export growth in April. However, it is expected that the price factor will also provide strong support for the growth rate of exports in April. In addition, the base in the same period in 2021 will rise slightly. In general, it is expected that the export value in April will face strong support year-on-year, but the trend may be weak. in March.
Cai Chengyu is also optimistic about the long-term improvement of foreign trade. He believes that China’s foreign trade will face greater challenges due to the recent impact of the epidemic and fluctuations in the global situation, but China’s foreign trade will still maintain a strong competitive position in the next few years. “One example is that some customers had previously transferred orders from China to Mexico, but the transfer process was not smooth. Due to the impact of local delivery efficiency, product quality and labor, the customer eventually transferred the order back to China gradually. So China’s supply chain still has something to be confident about.”