The German Chancellor seeks a third way in China – Pierre Haski

Chancellor Olaf Scholz will stay just eleven hours on Chinese soil, but his trip still fuels heated debate in Europe. Critics of the chancellor, even within his coalition in Germany, believe that the visit is the continuation of an inappropriate mercantile policy in an era of great geopolitical upheavals.

Until a few years ago, the German model seemed solidly based on two elements: a reliable energy supply from Russia and the unlimited Chinese market. As for Russian energy, the trap was triggered last February in Ukraine. The Chinese eldorado that allowed Germany to achieve exceptional success instead embarked on a nationalist and totalitarian turn under Xi Jinping.

In the past, however, things were different. I remember that when I was a correspondent from Beijing, I saw French delegations pass by whose sole purpose was “to do as the Germans”, but without ever succeeding. That success now has a boomerang effect in times of geopolitical tensions, and poses an existential question to Germany, more than to other European countries.

The world of tomorrow
Was it necessary to travel to Beijing in the current climate? It depends on what the purpose of the visit is. If it were a question of doing “Merkel without Merkel”, or boasting the quality of made in Germany without worrying too much about the political context, then the mistake would be colossal.

Scholz is looking for a “third way” between the conflicting tone of the United States and the complacency of the past. Is it a realistic strategy? Is it possible to distinguish between legitimate economic activities and the choices that create addictions, absolutely to be avoided in order not to repeat the painful awakening experienced with Russia? Is it possible to take a clear position without foreclosing on what remains of an immense market?

These questions apply to all countries. On the other hand, the United States continues to trade with China for hundreds of billions of dollars despite their technological war. And don’t even try to talk about “uncoupling” from China to luxury or service companies in France. They wouldn’t understand the concept.

Beyond Scholz’s visit, the state of the world of tomorrow is at stake. So far Europe has described China, depending on the areas, as a “partner”, “competitor” or “systemic rival”. If rivalry prevails, the “third way” sought by the chancellor will not exist.

Scholz is expected at the gate in Paris, Brussels and Washington, but also in Berlin by his coalition partners. The German foreign minister, the ecologist Analena Baerbock, who is not participating in the visit, said that Germany “cannot be dependent on a country that does not share our values ​​and could blackmail us”. The message is clear.

The chancellor, who among other things still appears undecided and not very comfortable in the habit of the statesman, will be accused of any false step. China welcomes Scholz, but the ideological approach illustrated by Xi at the twentieth congress is certainly not what the chancellor dreams of. Beijing goes in another direction.

(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)