Industry news
Canadian canola futures on Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ended lower on Tuesday, with the benchmark closing down about 1.4% as the Canadian dollar strengthened and outside markets were lower. As of the close, the January period closed down about C$12.30 to close at C$884.20/ton; the March period closed down about C$11.90 to close at C$882.10/ton.
Summary of views
rapeseed meal
As of November 6, the U.S. soybean harvest rate was 94%, which is basically nearing the end. The overall progress is faster than the same period in previous years, and the seasonal harvest pressure has increased. And before the USDA report, analysts expected to slightly increase the US soybean harvest forecast and carryover inventory.However, the export inspection of U.S. soybeans in the past two weeks has been relatively good, boosting expectations for better demand, and the inland water transportation in the United States has been blocked, and the market expects importssoybeanMay be delayed in arrival,soybean mealWhether the spot inventory can be recovered as scheduled is still uncertain. The recent strong trend of soybean meal has boosted the rapeseed meal market. In terms of rapeseed meal, the current oil mills maintain a low operating rate, the rapeseed meal inventory remains low, and the high basis still gives strong support to the futures market. At the same time, the price difference of soybean and rapeseed meal is large, and the advantages of rapeseed meal replacement are highlighted, which increases the demand for rapeseed meal. However, aquaculture has gradually entered the off-season, the overall demand for rapeseed meal has fallen seasonally, and the demand-side support for prices has weakened. And due to rumors of rapeseed oil, such as the recovery of the operating rate of oil plants, there is an expectation of passive accumulation of rapeseed meal. From the perspective of the disk, the uncertainty of Sino-Canadian relations continues to ferment, rapeseed meal continues to increase, and high volatility intensifies, so let’s wait and see.
vegetable oil
The EU’s ban on Russian oil is about to take effect, supporting international crude oil prices. The US domestic biodiesel industry has strong demand for soybean oil, which is good for oil consumption. However, the black sea port outbound transportation agreement has been restored, and the tightening atmosphere of vegetable oil has been released in the early stage. In addition, the accelerated export season of Jiazi and U.S. soybeans is about to usher in, and the supply pressure in the international market will increase. In addition, worries about global economic recession still exist, and worries about weakening demand still exist. In the domestic market, data from China Cereals and Oils Business Network shows that rapeseed is expected to arrive in Hong Kong at 590,000 tons in November, the operating rate of oil plants is expected to rebound significantly, and the supply of rapeseed oil is expected to increase. At the same time, the pressure of domestic epidemic prevention and control has increased again, and the demand for oils and fats has been weak. However, the relationship between China and Canada has re-emerged. The market is worried that there will be variables in the import volume of added seeds in the later period, and the import price of added seeds is relatively high, and the cost support will increase. In addition, boosted by the high basis and the rumors of purchase and storage, it will continue to support the trend of rapeseed oil futures prices. On the whole, the uncertainty of China-Canada relations continues to ferment, rapeseed oil remains strong, and market volatility intensifies.
(Article source: Ritar Futures)
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