BOLZANO. After 15 weeks of descent, the new weekly cases of Covid-19 recorded in Italy “started to rise more and more rapidly, certifying the start of the fourth wave: from 5,306 in the week of 23-29 June up to 19,390 in the 14 week. -20 July. “Given that the 19,152 cases in the last 4 days confirm the exponential growth in the coming weeks, it is realistic to expect a significant increase in infections.” Thus the president of the Gimbe Foundation, Nino Cartabellotta, who, after the latest data, makes the point of the situation.
Increase in the infection also in South Tyrol: the cases in the week from 12 to 18 July were 121 with an Rt of 1.33.
“With the start of the fourth wave – explains Cartabellotta – the management of the pandemic and public communication must take into account various aspects: dynamics of the circulation of Sars-CoV-2, potential impact of Covid-19 on hospitals, efficacy of vaccines, criticality of supply and administration, extension of the uses of the green pass and new parameters to assign ‘colors’ to the Regions “.
In particular, he highlights, “the progressive spread of the Delta variant is causing, as has already happened in other European countries, a surge in the number of infections, the extent of which is probably underestimated by the insufficient testing & tracing activity”.
And on hospitalizations: “In the week 14-20 July, after 14 weeks of reduction, there was a reversal of the trend of hospitalizations in the medical area and in intensive care. At the moment – underlines Cartabellotta – these are small increases that do not generate any overload, but which still document the hospital impact of increased viral circulation “.
But thanks to vaccination coverage, reads the analysis of the Gimbe Foundation, “it is reasonably certain that compared to the previous waves the impact of the number of cases on hospitalizations and intensive care will be less. But it should be remembered that the extent of this impact remains proportional to viral circulation, which must be limited as much as possible by adhering to the recommended behaviors and vaccinating all age groups, and inversely correlated with complete vaccination coverage, in particular those over 50 and frail, to be completed quickly “.