It will take time to understand whether this COP26 has been a success or a failure, even the details of the Final Declaration will not be enough to provide a balance sheet. Because the real games begin tomorrow, with the implementation of what is agreed and promised here in Glasgow. But if the final picture will be a blurred image, something has been brought home. For two weeks, bilaterals between leaders and delegates from 197 countries have produced a series of agreements which, at least on paper, are a – positive – turning point in the fight against climate change and represent the collateral successes of this Conference of the Parties.
Less “heavy” emissions
More than 100 countries, including the United States, the EU, Japan and Canada, have committed to significantly reduce emissions of methane, a short-lived but extremely “heavy” greenhouse gas for the planet that alone is worth 0.2 ° C . The Global Methane Pledge announced at COP26 in Glasgow commits signatories to reduce their emissions by 30% by 2030, compared to 2020 levels. The cuts will be made effective by reducing methane losses from oil and gas wells, pipelines and other fossil fuel infrastructure.
The China-USA agreement
Last Wednesday the announcement of a joint China-US statement was the real twist of the day, and beyond. A point brought home by the American special envoy for the climate, John Kerry, prepared with 30 diplomatic trips to China, and by the Beijing-Glasgow negotiator Xie Zhenhua. The agreement was found on the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in 10 years. But beyond the important but very vague commitment to “accelerate the transition to a net-zero emission economy”, the announcement is a turning point in the strained relations between China and the US, en route to trade, human rights and Taiwan, who now collaborate, at least on the climate.
Fuel subsidies
One of the most important agreements signed on the sidelines is that of 39 countries (including the United States and Italy) and banking institutions (the European Investment Bank) which puts an end to public subsidies for fossil fuels abroad, specifically “puts the an end to new direct public subsidies to the international energy and unabated fossil fuel sector (without abatement of emissions) by the end of 2022, except in limited circumstances that are consistent with a heating limit of 1.5 ° C and the objectives of the Paris Agreement “. The goal is the transition to clean energy and the elimination of fossil fuels. In Europe, fossil fuel subsidies, which amounted to 50 billion in 2018 (a third of all EU subsidies), have been stable over the last decade, peaking at 53 billion in 2012, but have recovered by around 6 billion. % per year from 2015 to 2018.
Stop deforestation
Aiming to keep global warming at +1.5 ° C would not be possible without conserving forests and preserving their role as carbon sinks. With this premise 132 countries, which contain over 90% of the “lungs of the Earth” have signed an agreement to stop deforestation by 2030, the first success announced in Glasgow. On the table there is an investment of 19.2 billion dollars of total public and private funds, and among the signatories there are also Brazil and Indonesia. It will be necessary to see how these countries will respect the treaty.
Farewell to coal (2030-40)
A series of initiatives have been stepped up to accelerate the farewell to coal, the dirtiest of fossil fuels. At least 23 states at COP26 in Glasgow (now there are 45 in total) have pledged for the first time to eliminate coal from their energy production. These include Indonesia, Vietnam, Poland, South Korea, Egypt, Spain, Nepal, Singapore, Chile and Ukraine. The deadlines vary, depending on whether it is a developing country or a developed country, but there are many doubts: Poland (23rd world economy) has made itself known as a developing country and has promised the goodbye to coal by 2040.