News from the Financial Associated Press on January 15 (edited by Yao Hui)The latest strategic views of the top ten brokerages are freshly released, as follows:
CITIC Securities: Funds will be gradually relayed and deployed with high flexibility after the festival
A-shares are in the key long-term window for the whole year. High-frequency data verification and fundamental expectations form a positive feedback, which strengthens the consensus of investors to increase allocation. It is expected that the pace of foreign capital will slow down after the rapid inflow of foreign capital, and domestic funds will also cover their positions, gradually forming a capital relay. effect. The historical review shows that after the Spring Festival, the market has a greater probability of rising due to the concentrated inflow of foreign capital. It is still a good time to increase positions. It is recommended that the long-term strategic allocation focus on the “four major security” and the three types of “depressions” in the medium-term tactical increase. In the short term, focus on varieties that are in the “depression” and have explosive power after the Spring Festival. First of all, the number of daily new infections has dropped significantly after the recent national epidemic “peaked”, high-frequency data verification and fundamental expectations have formed positive feedback, and the mid-term recovery trend of fundamentals is highly clear. form a strong consensus. Secondly, the inflow of foreign capital to cover positions has accelerated significantly, and has become the most important pricing force in the beginning of the year. It is also expected to be one of the important sources of funds for the whole year; domestic institutions have shifted their positions from balanced allocation to more growth, and domestic and foreign capital will gradually form a capital relay. effect. Thirdly, historical review shows that in the past 33 events in which foreign capital inflows exceeded 20 billion yuan, 20 times A shares rose in the following three months, and the average increase of CSI 300 was 8.8%; since 2000, A shares rose one month after the Spring Festival The probability of rising is 74%, and the average rising rate is 2.5%. At present, the above two types of events are superimposed, and the market has a higher probability of rising after the festival. Finally, the current is still a good time to increase positions.
In terms of allocation, ① In terms of long-term strategic allocation, it is still recommended to focus on the “four major security” areas of energy, technology, national defense, and agriculture. ②In the mid-term tactical increase, it is recommended to focus on the three types of “depressions” that benefit from the continuous improvement and diffusion of market liquidity, and industries that have a large room for year-on-year improvement in performance in 2023, such as the digital economy in technology and the pharmaceutical industry. Pharmaceutical consumables and equipment, solar energy storage in manufacturing, subdivided materials and equipment in the machinery and military sectors, and post-cycle categories such as building materials, home furnishing, and home appliances in the real estate chain. ③In terms of short-term product selection, during the relay period of internal and external funds, it is recommended to deploy products with low institutional positions, smooth industrial logic, and high performance flexibility. It is expected to have explosive power after the Spring Festival holiday, including medical care and Xinchuang, etc.
Huaan Securities: The four main lines of holding shares during the festival continue to grasp the spring market
The epidemic infection peaked before the Spring Festival and fell back to create an environment for consumption recovery. The easing of inflationary pressure in the United States is expected to drive the Fed to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. Both of these are continuously positive for A-shares.
In terms of configuration, it is recommended to use four main lines: first, the growth style of the strong is constant, focusing on wind energy storage, upstream materials of the battery chain, and midstream manufacturing with the blessing of the industry cycle; the second is the emotional leading sector in the spring market, focusing on securities companies and computer information The third is that the peak of the epidemic situation has fallen and the demand for the Spring Festival has been superimposed, focusing on the travel chain in service consumption, offline consumption, liquor and other food and drink consumer goods, and medical services and pharmaceutical businesses that have recovered demand; fourth, support policies and green light investment cases can be launched. Over the period, superimposed on the continued rebound of U.S. stocks, pay attention to leading companies in the Internet platform economy in Hong Kong stocks.
Haitong Securities: Compared with history, this round of rise may not complete the long-term hopeful relay
Since the end of October 22, the market has belonged to the first wave of rising in the early stage of the bull market. Historically, it has lasted an average of 3 months, and the broad-based index has increased by around 30%. Compared with history, this time and space have not yet arrived. During the first wave of the bull market in the past, the style was balanced, and the industry rose in rounds. Since this low point rise, the value has slightly dominated, and it is expected to learn from historical growth in the future.
The growth sector attaches importance to the digital economy (TMT), new energy has structural highlights, and securities companies are also worthy of attention. For the whole year, consumption is expected to recover and reverse, and consumer staples are better.
Zhongtai Securities: In the short term, it is not recommended to blindly chase higher allocations and maintain a balance
The current market sentiment is high, so it is necessary to treat the market sentiment calmly. In the short term, it is not recommended to over-chasing the high, but to pay attention to the interpretation of risk factors in the first quarter. From the perspective of style performance, in the first quarter, the styles of medicine, high-dividend electric power, and technology (military industry, computer) may be relatively dominant. Looking at the whole year, the economy is the basis of the most important work of the decision-makers this year, and it is necessary to pay attention to the intensity of subsequent policy stimulus. With the economic performance “does not come well”, the market performance in the second quarter is worth looking forward to, so the first quarter can also be regarded as a bargain Layout window period.
After rising for three consecutive weeks, the current market sentiment is relatively excited. In view of the risks of epidemic disturbances and consumption recovery lower than expected in the first quarter, it is not recommended to blindly chase higher prices in the short term, and a balance should also be maintained in the allocation direction:
1) Combining the market performance around the Spring Festival in the past 10 years, the large consumer sector generally performed well before the Spring Festival, but the sector often fell after the Spring Festival. Moreover, since the relaxation of the epidemic prevention and control policy in December, the large consumer sectors represented by food and beverage and consumer services have achieved relatively high growth rates. The current sector trading sentiment is already at a high level, so blindly chasing higher prices is not recommended in the short term. 2) Technology sectors such as computers and military industries have performed relatively steadily around the Spring Festival in the past 10 years. Combined with the current low congestion in computer and other technology sectors, and under the catalysis of factors such as the development of the digital industry and the technological competition of major countries, there is no lack of relatively prosperous performance support. Short-term The investment value of the inner sector is highlighted. 3) The electric power, UHV, power grid transformation and other sectors are currently at the bottom stage, and the sector’s trading sentiment is low. In the future, under the catalysis of the steady growth policies, the sector may perform well, and it can be properly configured for defense. 4) With the gradual “normalization” of the epidemic and the emergence of government-directed stimulus effects, the market style may return to the undervalued blue chips of central enterprises in the second half of the year. Under the repeated impact of the epidemic, the pharmaceutical sector may become an important main line of the market in 23 years.
Minsheng Securities: The market is in the policy honeymoon period, pay attention to the spread of recovery transactions
China’s economic recovery is expected to resonate with overseas “recession deals”, and the market continues to be restless. The current domestic market is in a policy honeymoon period, and the upward momentum has not yet ended.
It is still the optimal strategy to make a layout centering on the domestic demand recovery dominated by the old economic momentum and the weakening of the US dollar. Our current combination suggestions are: real estate, oil (oil transportation, petroleum and petrochemical), insurance, coal, non-ferrous metals (copper, gold, aluminum), banks, building materials.
Western Securities: After the festival, the market is expected to usher in the third stage of the New Year’s Eve market
As the liquidity environment turns to be abundant, the approach of the superimposed annual report performance forecast window period promotes the improvement of profit expectations, and the New Year’s Eve market is entering the second stage of profit expectation-driven. With the gradual holding of local two sessions in the future, the market’s expectations for macro policies It will go further, and the market is expected to gradually enter the third stage of the New Year’s Eve market.
From a structural point of view, under the background of the liberalization of epidemic control, the recovery of pharmaceutical and offline consumption scenes still deserves attention. As the two sessions are approaching and policy expectations are heating up, industries related to new infrastructure such as electric power, communications, computers, and electronics are worthy of attention. With the continuous advancement of deepening financial reforms and the construction of a valuation system with Chinese characteristics, the importance of the direct financing market has increased, and attention has been paid to the continuous improvement of the performance and valuation of securities companies.
Industrial Securities: Domestic capital will form a joint force with foreign capital to resonate and market restoration will continue
In the next stage, under the background of the continuous inflow of foreign capital, the impact of the domestic epidemic gradually subsiding, and the accelerated implementation of policy easing, we believe that the recovery of the market will continue. Moreover, as domestic funds gradually enter the market and resonate, this year, driven by incremental funds, we can be more optimistic about the market.
In terms of structure, on the one hand, continue to focus on the “core assets” represented by big consumption and the Internet, which benefit from policy relaxation while continuing to focus on foreign investment preferences. On the other hand, for growth sectors such as innovative drugs, Xinchuang, semiconductors, consumer electronics, energy storage, and military industry that are in line with the direction of policy guidance, pessimistic expectations continue to be released, and the degree of congestion has dropped to historical lows. Pay attention and dig gold.
Cinda Securities: Value is expected to lead the market to rise
In the first wave of rising from bear to bull, the market may have an overall general rise. We believe that the sectors that will lead the rise in the future may be more biased towards value. The essential reason is that valuation and logic are more important than prosperity in the early stages of a bear-to-bull transition. At this stage in history, most of the sectors with larger gains were oversold in bear markets or sectors with weak excess returns in the past 2-3 years. The current value style valuation and positions are low, and there is more room for valuation repair, especially on the left side of the improvement in fundamentals, there may be better opportunities for excess returns. In addition, benefiting from the promotion of stable growth policies and the expectation of consumption recovery after the epidemic peaks, the logic of driving the overall economic recovery within the year is more conducive to the performance of economic-related sectors.
Allocation suggestions for the next 3 months: Consumption (epidemic & real estate policy changes + economic beta + valuation restoration) > Financial real estate (steady growth + performance on the left side of economic improvement) > soft growth (suppressed in the past 2-3 years + undervaluation +Looking for a new track)>Cycle (decline in commodity prices + valuation repair of some real estate chains)>Hard technology (relief of supply and demand mismatch + pressure on production capacity still to be cleared).
Huaxi Securities: The spring market of A shares is still positive and can be expected
This round of A-share market started in early November, and the main driving force came from the rise in valuation. Looking ahead, we still hold a positive attitude towards A-shares: 1) The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike is expected to slow down, and the decline in U.S. dollars and U.S. bonds will drive the risk appetite of foreign investors to pick up; The attractiveness of global asset allocation has increased; 3) Policies in real estate, platform economy and other fields have released warmth, driving the continuous rise in A-share valuations. From the perspective of capital, foreign capital is the leading incremental capital in the near future, and the positions of private equity funds have also seen a rapid upward trend. When investor sentiment is further restored, incremental funds from public offerings are also expected to gradually enter the market, driving A-share funds to look good.
In terms of industry configuration, it is recommended to focus on three main lines: 1) Consumption fields that benefit from post-epidemic recovery, such as food and beverage, medicine, aviation airports, hotels, and tax exemptions; 2) Growth sectors supported by industrial policies, such as digital economy, credit creation, military industry, Some areas of new energy, etc.; 3) Real estate-related industrial chains, etc., benefiting from policy marginal adjustments.
CICC: High-slope recovery continues to support market recovery
Looking into the future, we believe that although a number of economic data in December were relatively weak, the market reflected expectations for future growth improvement. After the peak of the impact of the epidemic has passed, the current stage may be a period of rapid recovery of economic activities. This is the recent market performance Stronger important support. The current market valuation is still at a historically low level. We believe that the market may face certain disturbances in the short term as the Spring Festival approaches. However, the market recovery may not be over yet. In the future, we need to pay close attention to the slope of economic improvement and the marginal impact of policy expectations on asset prices.
In terms of allocation suggestions, short-term follow closely the rhythm of policy marginal changes, and medium-term growth. 1) Areas with low expectations and marginal changes in policies that are greatly affected, such as the real estate chain, consumption affected by the epidemic, including food and beverage, home appliances, light industry and home furnishing, etc.; the Central Economic Work Conference mentioned supporting the development of platform companies, related areas It is also worthy of attention; 2) High prosperity, policy support, and China’s competitive manufacturing growth track, including technology software and hardware, high-end manufacturing, etc.; For the Internet, etc., the timing of configuration needs to wait for the expected changes in policies.