Inflation and oil prices will rise
Will it really be a record summer for tourism and airlines? Clouding the prospects, so far quite positive, was the sudden announcement that OPEC+ will cut crude oil production by 1.6 million barrels per day to support prices. A communication that no one expected and with a very worrying impact. Goldman Sachs already sees the barrel at 95 and then at 100 dollars. Inflation will rise and this will probably force central banks to tighten credit even more. Even at the cost of causing a recession.
Pre-Covid levels still far away
Bad news for the whole system that revolves around flights. The air traffic is mainly dependent on economic growth. But it is also impacted by a number of factors that are highly correlated with each other. Starting precisely with the dynamics of interest rates and international tensions that the choice of producing countries will help to accentuate.
Deutsche Bank analysts still declare themselves optimistic even if they recognize that the first half should still close negatively. On the other hand, pre-covid levels have not yet been reached. Enac statistics show that, in January, the number of passengers transported on Italian skies almost doubled on 2022, are still 7.6% below January 2019. The overall movements show a delay of 11.88% and the cargo by 2.6%. This is why analysts are still very cautious with listed airport management companies and with ENAV which manages flight services.
IN BOLOGNA
Mediobanca Securities conferma the Neutral recommendation and the TP of €8.40. The traffic volume in February marked a +35.9% but, notes MB, remains 9.1% below February 2019 (-8% for domestic routes). However, analysts’ attention is focused on the agreement signed between the Airport and RYANAIR for the next 6 years. Understanding Sanpaolo confirms the HOLD recommendation (Wait before buying)
TUSCANY AIRPORTS (Florence and Pisa airports)
Understanding Sanpaolo confirms the HOLD recommendation. 2022 results were solid, driven by traffic recovery and followed by a strong start to the year and Ryanair contract extension, analysts underline
ENAV
Equity Sim has reduced the TP from €4.9 to €4.7. Fourth quarter 2022 and 2023 estimates slightly below our expectations, explain the analysts, who have trimmed the 2023-2024 earnings per share estimates by 2%.