Title: Positive Outlook for Major Events Sets the Stage for a Promising Week
Date: [Current Date]
As the new week begins, several major events are expected to kick-start with a positive market sentiment. Last Friday, the broader market experienced a slight contraction in the final hour of trading, while external stock markets showed signs of improvement, contributing to a relatively calm market atmosphere.
Today, the market is projected to open on a higher note, with attention drawn towards potential resistance levels at 3216 points during an upward trend and strong support levels at 3195 points during a pullback, with even stronger support at 3180 points.
Apart from the events previously discussed, there are two additional noteworthy factors that demand attention. Firstly, the issue of coaching change is gaining significance as the leader opposes the devaluation of the renminbi. This stance is deemed positive for the market as the stability of foreign capital is closely linked to the appreciation of the renminbi, subsequently benefiting the stock market. Secondly, the matter of chips and semiconductors is deemed crucial for self-control, as remaining reliant on others may prove challenging in the future. Policy support will play a crucial role in determining the outcome.
As the week progresses, the following major events are set to unfold:
1. On July 3, China will announce the June Caixin Manufacturing PMI; on July 5, it will announce the June Caixin Service Industry PMI; and on July 7, the June foreign exchange reserves announcement will be made.
As the focus shifts to PMI data, it is worth noting that May’s PMI was recorded at 48.8%, showing a 0.4% decline from the previous month and falling below the critical point. If the PMI released this month avoids significant decline, it is anticipated that the market will continue its rebound. Stabilizing above the threshold of prosperity and decline will further consolidate the market after a positive start.
2. The 2023 World Artificial Intelligence Conference is scheduled to take place at the Shanghai World Expo Center and World Expo Exhibition Hall from July 6th to 8th.
Reports suggest that this conference will witness the highest number of exhibitors and the largest exhibition area ever. Encompassing core technologies, smart terminals, application empowerment, cutting-edge technologies, and featuring large-scale models, chips, robots, and intelligent driving, this conference holds significant potential. Artificial intelligence has been a prominent field of interest this year, although previous tactics to reduce holdings led to a correction in the sector. With several stocks seeing a downturn of 20%-30% from their highs, the news surrounding this event may serve as a catalyst for another rebound, generating anticipation within the market.
3. The 2023 Global Digital Economy Conference will be hosted in Beijing from July 4th to 7th, focusing on the new pattern of high-quality development in the software industry. Additionally, the 8th China Shenyang International Robot Conference, the First Brain-Computer Interface Conference, and the First Plenary Session of the Brain-Computer Interface Industry Alliance will be held in Tianjin from July 3rd to July 5th.
This week’s events continue to revolve around technology stocks, including robotics, brain interfaces, and previously hyped sectors. However, with a significant rise already witnessed in these stocks, the probability of another surge remains uncertain. The upcoming release of semi-annual reports next week, coupled with stocks having overdrawn their performance for several years, may lead to a rebound but caution is advised against chasing the rise.
Technically, the market closed last Friday with a mid-yang line. Although the trading volume increased, it was not as substantial as previous heavy volume periods. Despite this, the market failed to fill the gap around 3236 points, and even if the gap is eventually filled, a decline could be expected around the 60-day line at 3270 points. As the market remains around the 3200-point range, an upward attack near 3236 points could provide an opportunity to reduce positions, while a pullback near 3150 points would present an opportunity to increase positions. Maintaining a close eye on market trends will be pivotal for successful navigation.
In conclusion, the major events lined up for this week, accompanied by positive market conditions, set the stage for a promising start. With attention focused on economic data releases, artificial intelligence conferences, and digital economy discourses, investors should approach the market cautiously, leveraging on potential rebounds while remaining mindful of the broader market dynamics.