(Source: Imagoeconomica)
Bank of Italy revises GDP upwards for 2023, but the conflict in Ukraine keeps the country’s economic situation unstable
Bank of Italy doubles the estimates for GDP in 2023 which should grow by1,3% against the +0.6% estimated in January. In the macro projections conducted within the ECB Eurosystem, however, the economy “should expand to a limited extent in the rest of the three-year period, held back by the effects of the worsening of financing conditions”. By 2024, GDP would only go up dell’1% against 1.2% estimated in January and1.1% in 2025. The institute in via Nazionale has elaborated the forecasts considering one scenario which assumes that the tensions associated with the conflict in Ukraine do not lead to further difficulties in the procurement of raw materials. Consistently, the prices of the latter are expected to remain practically stable over the three-year forecast period at levels that are clearly lower than those of 2022.
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By contrast, the macroeconomic framework it was affected by the effects of more restrictive monetary and credit conditions for businesses and households. The scenario incorporates the measures contained in the Labor decree and takes into account the interventions financed under the programme Next Generation Eubased on the most up-to-date information relating to the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (Pnrr).
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