For electricity tariffs “there is finally good news” while for gas it is not yet time for reductions: this is the forecast by Davide Tabarelli, president of Nomisma Energia, according to which “the estimated variation based on the wholesale prices of electricity, having fallen on the pressure of those of gas, is of the order of 25%, about 16 euro cents less per kWh which should bring the tariffs back towards 50 cents per kWh». The Arera will announce the change by the end of the year. As for gas, Tabarelli explained toAnsa“a 20% increase in December bills to 1.48 euros per cubic meter” is expected.
Davide Tabarelli, president of Nomisma Energia
(ansa)
Gas: the price cap arrives, a year of energy war
Meanwhile, the price of European gas falls at the end of the year. And it goes under 100 euros per megawatt hour (MWh); and it drops even more, turning steadily on the 80 euro line. Physical-virtual threshold, as well as psychological, fundamental for the markets in part thanks to the price cap on which the European Union has managed to find a synthesis. The mediation on the gas price ceiling was reached after a long journey, and ten months of energy war that opened with the conflict in Ukraine. During the year, the quotation even exceeded 300 euros, with the bills of families and businesses that took off. The consequent increase in inflation, already ready to ride the wave of the increase in raw material costs in the wake of the shortage of semiconductors and chips that began in the Covid era, continued with the increase in food goods (starting with wheat ). February 24 is definitely the date to mark.
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The compromise reached and the market response
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the outbreak of war fueled tensions over international negotiations. That day, with the invasion of Russia, the price had shot up to 127 euros per MWh. Between 22 and 23 February the price was between 79 and 88 euros per MWh. Gradually, greater gas price volatility has taken shape which, to the speculative nervousness of the Dutch market on the FTT, adds the geo-political destabilization of a conflict at the eastern gates of Europe. But the price cap has brought peace, or at least the function of preventive deterrence on the increase in costs that is attributed to it; on December 19, a few days ago, a compromise was reached: the European Union managed to find an agreement on the gas price ceiling, set at 185 euros per MWh. The response of the markets was not long in coming; on 21 December the threshold of 100 euro per MWh was removed.
Draghi’s commitment recognized by Meloni
Along the path that led to the price cap, Italy played an important role as recognized by the European Union itself. Former premier Mario Draghi has repeatedly promoted the agreement, in some cases even going beyond the limits of the office held, albeit with the consent of the European Commission. A commitment recognized by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni who spoke of an “Italian victory”. Now, the price below 100 euros per MWh – in reality we are now around 80 euros per MWh – is at its lowest level since June 2022. And even if in the summer of 2021 gas cost around 30 euros per MWh, it is a result which opens up positive prospects.