Buying hangover on the Bper stock, which leaps to the top of the Ftse Mib after the publication of the accounts for the first half and the words of the CEO Piero Luigi Montani. Bper quotations fly by almost + 10%
Focus on the bank, engaged in the integration process with Banca Carige, the Genoese bank with which it is married.
Montani was more than optimistic about the contribution that the M&A operation will ensure in terms of profitability.
It should be noted that, according to the data recently reported by Equita SIM relating to the takeover bid launched by BPER on Banca Carige, BPER now holds 93.9% of the Ligurian institute’s ordinary capital.
At this point, Bper will launch the obligation to purchase the remaining 6.1% of the capital of Carige not yet owned, in the period from 22 August to 9 September.
Even if the Emilian institute, after the sell-out period, does not reach 95% of the ordinary capital, in any case Borsa Italiana will delist the Carige shares.
In this regard, the accounts of Carige were also disclosed
with the note from Bper that since last June has consolidated the Ligurian banking group.
So Montani:
“The second part of the year will see us engaged in completing the integration of Banca Carige and inimplementation of the numerous projects envisaged in the 2022-2025 Plan recently launched, which will bring significant benefits in terms of rationalization of the operating structure and increase in profitability starting from 2023 ″, said the CEO, also adding that the “Capital position remains high with a fully phased proforma Cet1 ratio of around 13.4%, which allows us to face the difficult external context with confidence”.
The Bper share flies to the Ftse Mib by 8.5%.
Equita SIM summarizes and analyzes Bper’s accounts, noting that the results for the second quarter of 2022 were impacted by numerous one-offs, and that adjusted net profit was confirmed as better than estimated, thanks to the contribution of higher revenues and lower provisions.
Highlighted the main items of the financial statements:
- Bper’s NII interest margin stood at 409mn (+ 9% QoQ, + 6% YoY), better than the expected 382mn;
- turnover rose to 903 million (+ 2% QoQ or on a quarterly basis, + 7% on an annual basis), better than the 861 million expected;
- the adj operating profit in the second quarter amounted to 359 million (+ 30% YoY), better than the 301 million expected;
- LLPs (provisions) amounted to -104mn (46bps) compared to -127mn (56bps) expected;
- net profit adj. it amounted to 204 million, much better than the 106 million expected.
Equita reiterates that Bper’s results for the second quarter of 2022 were “Influenced by numerous one-offs, mainly linked to the entry of CRG (Carige) into the company perimeter. In particular, the profit rep. is 1.27 billion following the recognition of badwill ”.
In addition, one arrived from the bank “A positive surprise of 7% both in terms of interest income and fees”.
“The interest margin NII – underlines Equita -, which rose 9% quarterly, benefited in particular from the higher volume of loans (+ 2.5% QoQ LfL), the improvement in the commercial spread (+ 8bps QoQ) and a greater contribution from the securities portfolio “.
Fees at 463 million (+ 3% QoQ compared to the expected 435 million) show a solid growth trend in bank commissions.
Positive surprise also on LLPs at -104mn vs -127mn expected, while the cost of CoR risk fell on a quarterly basis by more than 10bps, con default rate a 0,8%.
CET1 fell on a quarterly basis by 81bps to 12.8% due to the impact of the acquisition of Carige, but 13.4% pro-forma post DTA.
The NPE Ratio stood at 4.3% (from 4.9% in the first quarter of 2022)
From the call it emerged that:
- Bper has entered into exclusive negotiations with Gardant for a strategic partnership on NPE management. The agreement provides for the sale of 2.5bn NPE (of which 1bn UTP)
- To date, Bper is seeing good credit demand and is very active commercially
- Guidance: net interest income 440-450 million per quarter, commissions between 490-500 million, costs -640 million.
After the results, Equita has revised upwards the estimates of Bper’s net profit for 2022 by 36% to c.470mn for higher revenues and lower LLPs. The estimates for the years 2023-24 have been revised upwards by 8% and 2%, respectively, due to the incidence of the higher interest margin.
Despite the revised estimates, Equita nevertheless confirmed for Bper a target price of € 2.3 per share (2023E P / TE = 0.4x, ROTE 5.9%) due to greater uncertainty on the macro scenario and revision of assumptions on rf rates
In any case, “the titre treated at compressed ratings (P / TE <0.25x) – reiterated by the Milanese SIM – we reiterate HOLD considering the complexities that Bper will have to face in the coming years, especially in relation to the integration of Carige and the plan initiatives, in a more challenging economic context ”.