November 27 news from the Financial Associated Press (edited by Yao Hui)The latest strategic views of the top ten brokerages are freshly released, as follows:
CITIC Securities: The new steady state is gradually approaching and the three main lines are gradually becoming clear
In December, it is expected that a new stable state of normalized prevention and control will gradually be formed during the optimization process of the “New Twenty Measures”, and a new stable state of economic recovery will gradually be formed during the implementation of the “Sixteen Measures” for real estate and other stable growth policies , The new steady state is gradually approaching, which will lay a solid foundation for the mid-term recovery of the economy; the inflection point of the pace of US interest rate hikes has been established, and the domestic monetary policy will focus on efforts to provide support for the recovery of A-share valuations. The current market characteristics also show that the trend of A-share comprehensive recovery in the medium term is highly clear, but the pace of short-term recovery has slowed down, and it is currently in the first half of the policy-driven period.
It is recommended to increase the position and allocate the following three main lines in a balanced manner: ①Beneficiary sectors under the precise prevention and control of the epidemic, focusing on subdivided industries such as vaccines, special effects drugs, consumer medical devices, and pharmaceutical circulation related to the new crown; ②The “second arrow” of real estate accelerates Under the impetus of market expectations, focus on high-quality real estate developers, building materials and home appliances in the real estate industry chain, as well as high-quality banks with suppressed previous valuations, benefiting from the insurance of rising long-term interest rates; ③Global liquidity inflection point expectations Emerge, focusing on Hong Kong stocks (Internet, innovative drugs) and precious metals.
Huaan Securities: The rebound pattern has not changed and the market will continue
Looking forward to December, we believe that the rebound pattern has not changed and the market will continue. On the one hand, it is expected that the central economic work conference will set a positive tone for next year’s growth, local epidemic prevention will increase the chaos and rectify deviations, and the Fed’s rate hike pace will be moderate, all of which may boost market preferences; on the other hand, the current economic growth is facing unabated pressure , but the market has fully expected that next year’s growth expectation is more important, and it is expected to be set at around 5%. In three aspects, the RRR cut shows that the tone of monetary policy has not changed, and liquidity is still being taken care of.
In terms of configuration, it is recommended to combine current themes and hot spots with medium and long-term deterministic opportunities: first, state-owned enterprises with Chinese prefixes are expected to continue to benefit from the valuation system with Chinese characteristics and the expectation of stable growth at the Central Economic Work Conference, and pay attention to traditional infrastructure and new infrastructure communication leaders; second, epidemic prevention policies Optimization and rectification will bring about Chinese medicine, medical equipment, and pharmaceutical business; the third is the growth track with medium and long-term dominant opportunities, including wind energy storage, batteries, etc., semiconductors are independently controllable, and security fields such as Xinchuang military industry need to pay attention to catalysts Appear.
Haitong Securities: The second wave of rising within the year is slowly unfolding, giving priority to high economic growth
The valuation level of A-shares fluctuates periodically, and indicators such as PE/PB, stock-to-bond return ratio, and risk premium rate are all at the bottom of the cycle. A-shares have a low point every 3-4 years, behind which is the economic cycle. The current economy is heading towards the early stage of recovery, and the trend of A-shares is improving. The policy of stabilizing growth is continuing to increase, and the second wave of growth is slowly unfolding within the year, giving priority to high economic growth, such as digital economy + new energy.
CITIC Construction Investment: At the end of the year, the style may move towards a stable growth chain related sectors
The momentum of the market rebound has weakened, and the characteristics of the stock game are obvious. The central bank’s RRR cuts help “stabilize growth” and smooth out liquidity pressure to support credit extension. Subsequent price-based tools under the “weak reality” may also be worth looking forward to.
The short-term focus is on policy cues. At the end of the year, the demand for stable growth has increased, and the style may rotate to the relevant sectors of the stable growth chain. Real estate financing support policies are frequently introduced, and the market has corrected the pessimistic expectations of “guaranteeing projects but not the main body” in the early stage. With the promulgation of the “Sixteen Financial Measures”, major state-owned banks have responded positively by granting over one trillion yuan in credit, and high-quality real estate companies are the first to benefit; superimposed liquidity margins are loose, promoting the fundamentals of the stable growth chain, especially the restoration of the pessimistic expectations of banks and real estate. The resumption is in a similar economic fundamental environment and the same destocking period of 2011-2012, 2014-2015, 2018 and 2021. The overall fourth quarter is characterized by the obvious dominance of counter-cyclical assets, which is represented by the average monthly income in the fourth quarter In terms of statistics, stable sectors (real estate, banking, public transportation) > TMT (media communication electronics) > midstream manufacturing and optional consumption. Corresponding to the performance of the industry this year, also under the background of uncertain economic expectations + the basic response to the high-prosperity track and prosperity expectations of the year, the short-term style may rotate in the direction of “steady growth”. From the perspective of long-term policy orientation, high-level technological self-reliance may become the main line of medium and long-term investment.
Industrial Securities: Take advantage of the trend and focus on short-term repair opportunities for state-owned enterprises and central enterprises with low valuations
The market has been in turmoil again recently, the core of which is the repetition of risk appetite. But we believe that there is no need to worry too much about systemic risks in the market. Structurally, follow the trend and pay attention to the undervaluation recovery opportunities of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises in the short term. In the medium and long term, continue to pay attention to the three main lines of “trusting military doctors”, “new semi-army” and “science and innovation”.
Western Securities: The duration and restoration of the New Year’s Eve market will be stronger than last year
Looking back at the “spring market” or “New Year’s market” over the years since 2009, the core logic driving the market comes from three aspects: 1) the credit impulse at the beginning of the year promotes the abundant macro liquidity in the market, 2) the macro data vacuum period from January to February brings The shift in profit expectations, and 3) the vision for the new year’s policy has brought about an increase in market risk appetite. We believe that this year’s “New Year’s Eve market” will start later than last year, but the duration and repair will be stronger, and the style will be more value-oriented.
From a structural point of view, as the year-end policy window approaches, the valuation switching market of the pharmaceutical, home appliance, food and beverage, financial and real estate industries is still the current main line. Under the guidance of long-term policy goals, agriculture, semiconductors, innovation and military industries, which are closely related to resources and information security, are entering the layout period. Thematic aspects focus on virtual reality, digital currency and other opportunities.
Tianfeng Securities: It is less likely that the trend of undervaluation will prevail, pay attention to style rotation
From the perspective of style trends, it is less likely that undervalued trends will prevail. From the perspective of style rotation, it may be in the second half of the third stage, and we may start to pay attention to some growth directions in the future, that is, the opportunity to return to the first stage. For example: (1) Daping, which underperformed in November (Xinchuang, Semiconductor, etc.). (2) The direction of the track has been adjusted since July due to excessive congestion (a significant increase in the proportion of turnover). The current congestion has finally digested to a relatively low position, and you can start to pay attention to it gradually.
But what needs to be explained here is: ①The high proportion of turnover is mostly a sufficient condition for short-term cashing. For example, in early July this year, this risk was prompted. ②The low proportion of turnover is not necessarily a reason to buy, but the trend of the prosperity should also be considered. ③ Focusing on the two keywords of “domestic demand” & “little to the total economy”, we are optimistic about: sea breeze, large storage, and military industry.
Zhongtai Securities: The warm winter market will continue and the index industry will gradually evolve into a structural market
The “warm winter market” will continue after the short-term shocks in late November. Structurally, it will shift from the index market in the first stage to the structural market performance of “weights set up the stage and individual stocks sing”, with CSI 1000 as the mainstay. The follow-up focus will be on the domestic market. The power of various policies. The configuration is maintained: Xinchuang, military industry, traditional Chinese medicine, electric power, securities companies, etc. remain unchanged.
Kaiyuan Securities: Pay attention to the trend of small and medium-sized cap growth after the transition of the “painful period”
The severe epidemic situation is superimposed with worries about repeated overseas inflation, and the “two big mountains” suppress market risk appetite or maintain it at a low level in stages. Only by waiting for the emotional fluctuations to decline, the remaining liquidity and the recovery of the fundamentals to gradually strengthen, the A-share market may emerge from a more obvious upward trend.
We judge that the domestic economy tends to recover in the future, which can be compared to scenario 1, especially with the environmental changes of “reasonable valuation + credit sinking”. Therefore, once the sentiment eases, A-shares are expected to resume their upward trend. At that time, the growth of small and medium-sized caps represented by the CSI 1000 may become more resilient.
Configuration suggestions: (1) The growth style may still be the main line of the market, including: (1) High-end manufacturing: power equipment (energy storage, photovoltaic), new energy vehicles (battery, motor electronic control, energy metal), machinery (general, Special equipment, instrumentation) and military industry. (2) Both “policy bottom” and fundamental logic independent controllable directions: computers (financial and electric power-related Xinchuang), semiconductor equipment and medical equipment. (2) The broad-based index focuses on the CSI 1000. (3) The layout of brokerage firms is at the right time: “Odds” benefit from the liquidity expansion cycle, and “Winning rate” waits for the fundamentals to “reverse”. (4) Consumption industries on the left side showing signs of recovery in fundamentals, including: social services, pharmaceuticals and biology (pharmaceutical commerce + medical services), black home appliances, commercial retail (Internet e-commerce + accessories), food and beverage (food processing + liquor) and real estate services. (5) Pay attention to the trend of the big cycle, and be optimistic about gold and ships.
CICC: At the end of the year, it is still necessary to pay attention to the policy orientation and systematic allocation of machines
As the end of the year approaches, pay attention to the Central Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference that may be held near December. At the current stage where the economy is still facing internal and external challenges, pay attention to the follow-up policy orientation.
It is recommended to focus on areas that are undervalued, not highly correlated with the macro, or have a decent degree of prosperity and policy support in terms of allocation. The current overall expectation of the growth sector is not low, and the position is still relatively heavy. Systematic allocation opportunities may still need to be observed, and structural opportunities should be grasped from the bottom up. The opportunity to switch from strategic style to growth needs to pay attention to overseas inflation and China’s stable growth. Progress. The results of the third quarter report have been disclosed, and attention should be paid to the follow-up restoration of the performance of A-share listed companies.