Research report text
【Variety view】
International crude oil futures prices rose, U.S. soybean oil fell under pressure, and CFTC soybean oil held a net long position, reducing its holdings for the first time in 6 weekspalmOil. The export data is good, palm oil has entered a seasonal production reduction cycle, domestic rapeseed oil stocks are at historically low levels, domestic palm oil continues to accumulate, and domestic soybean and rapeseed oil spot basis is firm. The catering consumption data is bleak, and the short-to-medium-term oil differentiation trend is the main trend. After the previous decline, there is currently a demand for a rebound. Waiting for the rebound to sell short again after the long-term bearish thinking remains unchanged.
【Operation Suggestions】
The trend of short-term and medium-term oils and fats is mainly differentiated, and the medium-term oscillation is intensified, and the short-term thinking is maintained in the long-term. Y2301 contract pressure level is 9550, support level is 8970; P2301 contract pressure level is 8750, support level is 7770; OI2301 contract pressure level is 11400, support level is 10900.
【Stock situation】
As of November 30, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 10,280 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the basis was 778 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 140 yuan/ton; No change; the basis difference is 108 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 58 yuan/ton; the average price of Jiangsu rapeseed oil is 13,240 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 100 yuan/ton, and the basis difference is 1959 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 212 yuan/ton.
【Business factors】
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is expected by the end of the week to propose the amount of renewable fuels that refiners must include in their fuel mix in 2023 and beyond.
Brazil’s National Energy Policy Council (CNPE) decided to maintain the biodiesel blending rate at the current 10% until the end of March next year, and increase it to 15% from April 1.
“Anecdotally, there was talk that OPEC had started to come up with the idea of cutting production on Sunday,” said Matt Smith, chief oil analyst at Kpler.
Data released by shipping survey agency IntertekTestingServices (ITS) on Friday showed that Malaysia exported 1,272,721 tons of palm oil products from November 1-25, an increase of 12.9% from 1,127,792 tons in the same period last month.
As of November 25, the domestic soybean oil inventory was 765,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week’s 767,000 tons; the domestic imported pressed rapeseed oil inventory was 201,000 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons from last week’s 155,000 tons ; The total domestic palm oil inventory was 843,000 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons from 806,000 tons last week.
【Bad factors】
The Fed’s rate hike is expected to slow the dollar index’s weakness.
【Risk Factors】
International Crude Dollar.
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