Securities Times News, CITIC Securities believes that entering June, domestic economic expectations are still at a low level, multiple overseas factors are superimposed, and investor behavior patterns are in a transition period. Near the trough of the semi-annual fluctuation range, when riding the wind and waves, it is recommended to use performance as the key link and continue to focus on the products that have policy catalyst expectations or performance advantages in the “safety” main line. First of all, the momentum of the recent economic recovery has weakened month-on-month, leading to excessive pessimism in the market. It is expected that structural policies will be introduced and accumulated in June. With the help of policies and the restoration of endogenous momentum, the economic recovery will improve significantly in the third quarter. Secondly, the Fed’s interest rate meeting in June is expected to fluctuate greatly. After the adjustment of the U.S. bond ceiling, liquidity risks still need to be paid attention to. It is expected that the RMB exchange rate will remain low and fluctuate, and will return to an appreciation trend in the third quarter. Thirdly, due to the poor returns of thematic game strategies this year, the behavior of investors is entering a transition period, and will return to performance-led. Finally, it is expected that A-shares will continue to fluctuate at a high level in June. Based on the comprehensive valuation and market sentiment judgment, it is currently tending to be near the trough of the fluctuation range in the second half of the year. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to continue to focus on varieties with policy catalyst expectations or performance advantages in the three major security fields of science and technology, energy resources, and national defense, and continue to pay attention to the long-term allocation value of the pharmaceutical industry.
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