CITIC Securities: It is expected that the pace of interest rate hikes by the Fed throughout the year may be urgent and then slow – yqqlm

Securities Times Network News, on February 20, a CITIC Securities report pointed out that in the context of the current high inflation, the collective hawkishness of the Fed voting committee has become the general trend. However, considering that many votes this year are not absolutely hawkish in nature, after the subsequent decline in U.S. inflation, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates this year is a “short-range sprint” rather than a “long-distance race to raise interest rates.” It is expected that the pace of interest rate hikes throughout the year may be quick and then slow. The probability of raising interest rates by 50bps in March is not high. Compared with the market’s aggressive expectation of 7 interest rate hikes throughout the year, we are more inclined to raise interest rates 3-4 times throughout the year. However, the speed of shrinking the table is expected to be more aggressive, and its tightening strength should not be underestimated. We maintain our previous view that the current appropriate approach is to comply with market expectations, rather than being too ahead of market expectations. We suggest that defense should remain the top priority and wait for the implementation of various CPI data in March and the monetary policy details of the European and American central banks.