The company forecasts the first half of the yearPerformance 2.55-25.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1028%-1072%, the single-quarter performance continuously hit a record high.Oil priceIn the upward channel, the price of coal chemical products has increased the company’s short-term profitability, and the company’s three major projects under construction are superimposed. It is expected that the fixed assets will increase by 1 times in the next two years, and the medium and long-term growth is expected. With reference to the valuation of companies in the same industry, based on the 12 times PE valuation in 2021, the target price is raised to 32 yuan (original target price of 22 yuan), and the “buy” rating is maintained.
The company’s performance in the first half of the year is expected to grow substantially, and the performance exceeds expectations.The company releases the 2021 semi-annual performance forecast, and is expected to return to the mother in the first half of the yearNet profit 2.5.5-26.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1028%-1072%, of which Q2 net profit attributable to the parent was 1.55-165 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 649%-697%, and a month-on-month increase of 55%-65%.
The company’s performance in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, mainly due to the high prosperity of coal chemical products in the upward channel of oil prices, which promoted a substantial increase in the company’s performance.
The coal chemical industry’s prosperity was high, and the company’s single-quarter performance reached a new high. Since 2021, the demand for chemical products has gradually recovered from the epidemic, and the international oil price has risen from around US$50/barrel at the beginning of the year to around US$75/barrel at present, jointly promoting the central increase in the price of chemical products. In 2021Q2, the company’s product prices have increased significantly. Among them, the average prices of polycarbonate, caprolactam, nylon 6, butanol, and octanol Q2 are 27,032, 13464, 14030, 13,744, 14609 yuan/ton, up 98%, 43%, and 32% respectively. , 160%, and 127%, respectively, up 29%, 8%, 7%, 28%, and 17% month-on-month. It is expected that the international crude oil demand side will continue to recover in the next 1-2 years, and the supply side OPEC+ countries will continue to maintain strong production cuts. We expect that international oil prices will continue to maintain an upward channel.At the same time, the demand for coal chemical products continues to recover. Under the mismatch of global chemical product supply and demand, it is expected that coalChemical IndustryIt will continue to maintain a relatively high business cycle.According to what we trackLuxi ChemicalAccording to the results of daily product price model performance calculations, the company’s Q2 performance is trending upwards. We expect the prosperity of the second half of the year to continue to exceed market expectations.
With the blessing of the three major projects under construction, the company’s mid- to long-term growth can be expected.The end of 2020announcementIt is planned to invest in the construction of 600,000 tons/year caprolactam nylon 6 project, 1.2 million tons/year bisphenol A project, 240,000 tons/year ethylene downstream integration project, with a total investment of about 14 billion yuan, in addition to high-end fluorine chemical projects, etc. , It is expected that the scale of the company’s fixed assets will nearly double after the completion of the project. At present, the company’s projects under construction are progressing smoothly, and subsequent new projects have been put into production one after another. There is ample room for growth in the next two years. In addition, according to the announcement on the official website of Liaocheng City Government,Luxi ChemicalAs a new material chemical park for local development, the park has a long-term project plan of 1 million tons of PC and 1 million tons of MDI. It is optimistic about the company’s long-term development in the field of new materials.
Risk factors: the risk of large fluctuations in international oil prices, the risk that the global epidemic will be less than expected, the risk of intensified trade disputes between China and the United States, and the risk of a decline in the boom of chemical products.
Investment suggestion: Considering that the rising oil price promotes the boom of coal chemical products, we raise the company’s EPS forecast for 2021/22/23 to 2.63/2.81/2.92 yuan (original forecast 1.09/1.22/1.69 yuan). The current stock price corresponds to a PE of 7. /7/7 times. With reference to the valuation of companies in the same industry, based on the PE valuation of 12 times in 2021, the company’s target price is raised to RMB 32 (original target price of RMB 22), and the “Buy” rating is maintained.
(Article Source:CITIC SecuritiesCo., Ltd.)
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