Event: On January 12, 2022, the central bank announced December financial data. The scale of social financing in December increased by 2.37 trillion yuan that month, an increase of 720.6 billion yuan year-on-year, and the scale of social financing stock was 314.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. The M1 stock was 64.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%; the M2 stock was 238.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%. RMB loans increased by 1.13 trillion yuan, a decrease of 123.4 billion yuan year-on-year, and the stock of RMB loans was 192.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.6% year-on-year.
Both social financing and M2 growth rebounded. In December, the monthly increment of social financing increased year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of stock scale rebounded again. Government bond and corporate bond financing remained the main driving force. In December, both M1 and M2 stocks increased year-on-year.
creditThe growth rate dropped slightly, and the margin of short-term corporate loans improved. In December, the year-on-year growth of RMB loans decreased, and the year-on-year growth rate fell again. From a breakdown, both short-term loans and medium- and long-term loans to the household sector shrunk significantly, the margin of short-term loans to the corporate sector improved, medium- and long-term loans continued to weaken, and bill financing Keep going.
The recovery of social financing growth is mainly affected by the base effect, and we should pay attention to the good start of credit. The overall performance of credit this month was weak, and the year-on-year growth rate fell again. In terms of residential credit, short-term loans to residents were affected by the epidemic and increased year-on-year. At the same time, residents’ medium and long-term loans dropped again, indicating that residents’ willingness to buy houses has not really recovered. In the corporate sector, the marginal recovery of short-term loans this month, with a significant year-on-year decrease, is the main reason for the year-on-year increase in corporate credit this month, while medium- and long-term loans, which reflect corporate business expectations, continued to decrease, indicating that companies are still optimistic about the future. Uncertainty, financing demand has not seen a significant recovery. In December, government debt and corporate debt financing increased by 638.1 billion yuan year-on-year, which is the main driving factor for the recovery of social financing growth this month. The reason for government bonds lies in the relative backwardness of fiscal power. For corporate bonds, it is mainly due to the low base effect caused by the impact of credit events at the end of last year. This month, corporate bond financing still increased by 136.8 billion yuan less than the same period in 2019.This month’s bill financing was 408.7 billion yuan, the second highest in the past three years, and bills were rediscountedinterest ratesharp downside, so investors expectBankSome credit may be moved to January in an effort to get credit “off to a good start”.
Judging from the credit performance in December, the credit performance of residents and enterprises after excluding bill financing continued to be weak.BankThe transfer of credit to January will also lead to poor credit performance in December, both of which may lead to a weakening of credit in December, so the follow-up needs to pay close attention to the credit performance in January 2022.
From the perspective of the bond market, the scale of social financing this month, driven by government bonds and corporate bonds, continued to stabilize and rebound year-on-year, but credit still performed poorly, slightly lower than market expectations, which is good for the bond market, but it may also beBankDue to the transfer of some credit lines to January.Overall, although the currentinterest rateIt is already at a low level, but there are no factors that cause interest rates to rise significantly. In the follow-up, we need to continue to pay attention to the credit performance in January, as well as the impact of factors such as the decline in interest rate cut expectations and the performance of the real economy on the bond market.
Risk reminder: domestic and foreign epidemics are repeated, economic performance exceeds expectations, and macro policies exceed expectations
(Article source: Debonsecurities）
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