In September, the recovery in consumption focused mainly on services, while for goods, also a consequence of a complicated situation in the automotive sector, demand showed signs of deceleration. The ICC, the Confcommercio Economic Indicator, indicates, in the annual comparison, a variation of 0.8%, the lowest figure since March, confirming some difficulties on the part of families in restoring full enlightenment to the spending profile.
The lower tonicity of consumption associated with the persistence of dysfunctions on the production side, begins to determine lower GDP dynamics. In October, according to our estimates, this indicator should register growth of 0.1% over September and 4.1% in the annual comparison.
Therefore, the final part of 2021, although characterized by widespread growth, seems to show the coexistence of a multiplicity of braking factors, also in relation to the international scenario, both for the bottlenecks present in the supply systems and for the resumption of the inflationary process, today no longer simplistically classified as merely transitory. Furthermore, the delays in vaccination campaigns in many disadvantaged areas of the world represent a real risk of not being able to eradicate the pandemic definitively and in a reasonable time.