MILANO – A block on the import of Russian gas “would be uno shock on volumes and prices “and would have a “heavy impact”. The study center of Confindustriawith an in-depth analysis on the subject, estimates that “the possible blocking of imports of natural gas from Russia, Italy’s main supplier in recent years, could have a very strong effect on the Italian economy, which is already weakened. This shock would cause a strong shortage of gas volumes for industry and services and an additional increase in energy costs. The total impact on GDP in Italy, on the horizon 2022-2023is estimated at almost a -2% on average per year“. Even considering the alternative supplies put on track by the government, Confindustria estimates that the lack of supply, over the 12 months between April 2022 and March 2023, would be equal to 14.0 mm3, or 18.4% of Italian consumption (a share similar to that calculated in the last Def).
An alarm accompanied by an already difficult picture for the cycle in the second quarter, between “conflicting signals” for the economy, where “price rises and shortages hit the industry, infectious minors help services. Meanwhile, rates are rising “. With” more employed “. Confindustria highlights that “in second quarter 2022 the scenario for Italy remains complicated (after -0.2% of GDP in the first) due to the continuation of the conflict in Ukraine. The data in April and May confirm the sum of commodity price increases, scarcity of materials, high uncertainty. The slow fading of infections could support consumption. Overall, however, the trend still appears negative“.
“The costs of Italian companies remain burdened by the increase in commodity prices, amplified by the conflict, despite the partial government interventions”, Confindustria again points out, retracing the context of the economic data. The price of oil grew up in May, a 111 dollars per barrel on average (105 in April). Il natural gas in Europe it showed a decline to 90 euro / mwh (from 101), but it was 13 euro at the end of 2019. Among the non-energy ones, wheat increases (+ 7%) and copper drops (-8%), on very high levels (+ 92% and + 54% from the end of 2019).
“In May, the confidence of manufacturing firms suffered further erosion, with assessments on orders falling.” The pmi index continues to decline (54.5 in April, from 55.8). “Production suffers from the impact of the conflict: in March, above expectations, it remained unchanged, but on the average for the first quarter it fell (-0.8%) and a fall is estimated for April, which would ballast the dynamics in the second . In this difficult scenario, fixed investments are also expected to slow down “.
There’s a “partial improvement” in services. The PMI on the rise in April (55.7 from 52.1) “indicates a possible rebound in the second quarter of services, which have been compressed for some time. In this direction, the expectation of a more robust recovery in tourism, thanks to the decline in infections, pushes the expectation of a more robust recovery. and restrictions. In May, business confidence in the sector recovered half of the fall, but that of households remains low and mobility is expected to grow for a small share of people (8.9% the balance). This could limit the recovery consumption of services.
Employment grew by + 0.6% in the first quarter, beyond expectations: temps, already above pre-Covid levels, rose sharply in February and March; the employed indefinitely they returned to the values of the beginning of 2020; the self-employed, who have been recovering for about a year, are still below (-240 thousand). In the first 4 months of 2022 260 thousand jobs were created, net of terminations “.
Export is “weak, but holds up. With regard to “rising” rates, “the ECB, worried by spreads, but even more by inflation (+ 7.5% in the area, + 6.0% in Italy), is expected, already in the third quarter, to completely stop purchases of securities and launch the first rate hike “. In the international context, however, there is a “two-speed Eurozone” with a boost to services and the manufacturing sector slowing down, the United States still “between lights and shadows”, while “various factors are holding back the emerging markets”.