The debate over reconstruction in Ukraine has been ongoing since the early stages of the Russian invasion. This is a great achievement for the post-conflict research community who have always stressed the importance of addressing the conflict and post-conflict as a complex spectrumwhere recovery considerations need to be considered at an early stage.
The European Union and the G7 countries have already held numerous discussion meetings on the reconstruction of Ukraine. The latest initiative took place in London on 21-22 June 2023, as part of the URC (Ukraine Recovery Conference) series of events. One of the main topics discussed was theprivate sector engagement in reconstruction. In fact, private investments still encounter many obstacles, first of all the financial risk of being involved in a country at war. The Ukrainian government is therefore trying to introduce the necessary reforms, including the anti-corruption measuresand to implement financial tools to improve investor confidence in the country.
Il risk of corruption of Ukrainian institutions it is probably one of the biggest risks of the approach focused on investment and physical reconstruction. Despite the enormous efforts of Zelensky’s government, and the attempt to implement control mechanisms by international partners, in fact, it cannot be excluded that part of the huge funding could end up in the pockets of a few private individuals: theAfghanistan experience demonstrates how this can seriously compromise the success of a post-conflict reconstruction process and unfortunately some episodes of government corruption that led to the resignation and dismissal of government members in January 2023, invite us to take all possible precautions.
The approach to Ukrainian reconstruction
The lessons of the past two decades of post-conflict reconstruction missions suggest that consider all the consequences of war, not just the purely physical ones, although these are easier to identify and solve. In fact, reconstruction should be conceived as a long-term process, which addresses the material and non-material damage caused by the conflict. Furthermore, it should be “broadly understood as a complex, holistic and multidimensional process encompassing efforts to simultaneously improve military (restoration of law and order), political (governance), economic (rehabilitation and development), and social (justice and reconciliation) conditions”.
In the Ukrainian context, for example, one of the elements that may give rise to concern in the post-conflict perspective concerns thehuge humanitarian crisis underway, with civilian casualties estimated by the Ukrainian authorities at between 33,000 and 41,000 in the first year of the war. Furthermore, according to the UNHCR data portal, over 5,977,000 Ukrainian refugees have registered as of 26 June 2023 across Europe. On a level more closely linked to the human security of the population, the proliferation of non-state armed groups and the great availability of weapons also among the civilian population, for defensive purposes, are certainly potential threats even in a long-term perspective.
It would be desirable for the European Union to promote disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) programs, as it had already done in recent years after the Maidan clashes and the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014. The large availability of weapons on the ground also highlights the need for a process of control of small arms and light weapons (SALW), as underlined by Izumi Nakamitsu, UN undersecretary general and high representative for disarmament affairs. You don’t have to look too far to find examples of how risky this can be: The Small Arms Survey found that the 2014 conflict in Ukraine led to a widespread proliferation of small arms, light weapons and ammunition.
Future challenges and opportunities
While every post-conflict scenario presents enormous challenges, in Ukraine some factors are favorable: Governmental institutions are still in place and, with the assistance of the international community, will continue to provide basic services to the civilian population, seeking to minimize the immediate consequences of the conflict while implementing long-term projects to restore the livelihood and well-being of the Ukrainian population.
An approach to reconstruction strongly focused on the economic and physical aspects is probably the simplest to implement, but risks being reductive and not capturing all the other aspects of the conflict that can cause a situation of instability in the long run. For this reason, the EU and the other international partners should build on past experiences and adopt a more holistic reconstruction perspective, which also takes into consideration other aspects, such as those linked to human security.