Original title: Data for the first month of the good start: China Life, Ping An and Taibao had negative growth in premiums, and the industry was waiting for spring in the harsh winter
The time goes to mid-February, and the annual opener contest has reached an important node.
As a result, it is not surprising that the individual insurance channel continued to decline in new orders. Affected by this,China Life InsuranceThe total premiums of the three leading institutions, Ping An Life, and CPIC Life, all began to experience negative growth.
The growth of individual insurance is sluggish, and the bancassurance channel, which is favored by large, medium and small insurance companies, has not been able to continue its glory in January 2022. Under the influence of multiple factors, the scale of new insurance premiums has declined to a certain extent.
Even the professional intermediary channel, which has maintained a high growth trend in the past few years, is deeply under pressure due to the large number of products removed from the shelves and the lack of competitiveness.
Looking forward to the future from the perspective of the industry itself, it seems that there are not too many factors to be optimistic: the transformation of individual insurance channels is difficult to achieve overnight, the competition in bancassurance channels has intensified, and there are still certain policy uncertainties; many leading professional intermediaries are faced with The same team transformation problem as individual insurance channels.
However, there are many optimistic voices from the outside: under the background of the word “stable”, more favorable policies are expected to be introduced one after another to moderately stimulate the domestic economy and boost consumption recovery, and the insurance industry will inevitably benefit; under the background of interest rate cuts, The counter-cyclical nature of the insurance industry and the advantages of rigid payment will also be further highlighted; there is another factor that deserves close attention. Under the assumption that “the epidemic will not last three times”, 2022 has been regarded by many as a key to the end of the “new crown epidemic”. In 2018, if the anxiety caused by the epidemic can be shaken off, along with a stronger economic recovery, consumers’ willingness to spend is bound to be further enhanced.
This optimism is also supported by the survey results of third-party institutions. The latest Deloitte report shows that insurance companies around the world are generally optimistic about the business income situation in 2022.
Perhaps the current life insurance industry is like the current people. Although spring has come in name, butThe impact of the cold wave is still there, and they are all waiting for the arrival of the real spring in the severe winter.
Personal risk predicament continues
New orders continued to decline, renewal premiums were “unable to pull”, and the total premiums of China Life, Ping An and Taibao declined.
Judging from the information obtained so far, the leading insurance companies that are mainly engaged in individual insurance channels have experienced a decline in new single premiums in January 2022, the most important start point.
What is more noteworthy is that due to the huge renewal business of leading insurance companies, in the past few years, even if the new policy premiums have negative growth, driven by the renewal premiums, most of their total premiums can also achieve positive growth, but in 2022 , this situation has been completely broken, and the total premiums of most leading insurance companies have experienced negative growth-new single premiums have fallen continuously, and consecutive premiums have been “unable to pull”.
Recently, domestic listed insurance companies have disclosed data on the original insurance premium income in January, showing thatChina Life, Ping An Life, CPIC Life,New China InsuranceThe five insurance companies of PICC Life achieved original insurance premium income of 2072, 985.74, 558.84, 466.19 and 35.868 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -5.3%, -0.6%, -1.1%, 3.6% and 30.2% respectively.
It can be seen that the top three insurance companies China Life, Ping An Life, and China Pacific Insurance have experienced a decline in the original insurance premium income to varying degrees. New China Insurance has risen slightly, and PICC Life has risen by 30.2%.
In January 2021, the year-on-year growth rates of the original insurance premiums of the above-mentioned five insurance companies were 13.1%, -5.2%, 8.79%, 12.8%, and 3.93%, respectively. Except for Ping An Life, the remaining four insurance companies have realized the original insurance. Positive growth in premium income, in stark contrast to January 2022.
Of course, this situation has been expected by industry insiders.The most direct factor should be “high base”——January 2021 is the last month before the suspension of the old definition of critical illness insurance. All companies have started a frantic “speculation and suspension” model, which directly pushed up the original insurance premium income in January 2021. It will affect the growth performance in 2022.
Some analysts pointed out that after excluding the impact of the suspension of critical illness insurance, the overall performance of the individual insurance channel in January 2022 may be basically the same as the same period in 2021.
In addition, due to the heavy performance pressure in 2021, some companies have delayed the opening time, so that the opening is less prepared than before, which is also one of the important reasons.
Of course, the most fundamental reason is that the transformation of individual insurance channels has not yet succeeded.The downward trend of manpower continues, and it is expected to drop by more than 3 million people throughout the year, but at the same time, the “quantity for quality” has not yet achieved significant results.The increased capacity is not enough to make up for the declining capacity. From this perspective, the individual insurance channel in 2022 does not seem to be optimistic.
Bancassurance growth rate turns from positive to negative
In the short term, business rhythm disruption is the main cause. In the long run, the deep-seated contradictions of channels are also emerging
Due to the sluggish individual insurance channel in recent years, the bancassurance channel has returned to the strategic vision of insurance companies, so it has maintained a relatively high growth rate. In terms of new single-scale premiums, although the growth rate is far less than the growth rate of total premiums, the overall growth rate in 2021 will also be maintained. Positive single-digit growth, as well as January 2021.
However, in January 2022, even the premiums of new bancassurance policies experienced a negative growth to a certain extent, almost returning to the level of 2020.
Analyzing the reasons, on the one hand, there is a relatively high base in January 2021; officially take effect.Some banks adjusted their cooperation strategies in advance, and some insurance companies failed to arrange the business rhythm well, so that they only maintained a certain positive growth on January 1, 2021, and the business began to decline significantly in the following days. .
Subsequently, the regulator issued the “Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Rectification of Bank Agency Insurance Business“, and gave the industry a one-year transitional rectification period, and the industry gradually returned to the right track, and the growth pressure was greatly eased.
At the same time, it is worth noting thatAlthough the new single premium of the bancassurance channel has declined to a certain extent, the new single installment premium still maintains a positive growth, indicating that the business transformation of this channel is still continuing.
Of course, compared with the personal agent channel, which is difficult to achieve in the short term, the bancassurance channel in the open market still has high hopes. Especially after the new regulations on Internet life insurance are implemented, a large number of small and medium-sized insurance companies are not allowed to sell long-term savings products online. In order to expand the scale, it is necessary to increase investment in offline bancassurance channels. The rapid growth of the bancassurance channel is still expected.
The “Notice on Matters Concerning Doing a Good Job in the Rectification of Bank Agency Insurance Business” has given the industry a reassurance.After abandoning the disturbance to the business rhythm caused by external factors, the bancassurance channel may resume the positive growth of new single-scale premiums relatively quickly.
However, uncertainties still exist. The “Notice on Matters Concerning Doing a Good Job in the Rectification of Bank Agency Insurance Business” only has a one-year rectification transition period for the industry. It is not known whether the supervision will introduce other alternative measures. Uncertainty about future operations.
From a longer-term perspective, the biggest hidden danger in the bancassurance channel also comes from within the channel.
From the bank’s point of view, with the decline in interest rates, the bank’s deposit and loan interest rate gap will be further squeezed, and the pressure on the middle-income business is bound to increase further. This is a favorable factor for the development of bancassurance channels in the insurance industry.
The hidden worry lies in the rapid growth and maturity of bancassurance channels. With the increasing emphasis on insurance business, the sales ability of bank tellers has also been rapidly improved with the help of insurance companies. However, once their ability reaches a certain level, the reliance on insurance companies will decrease, and insurance companies will be negotiating with banks. will be in a more passive position.It is reported that this phenomenon has already appeared in major bancassurance companies such as China Merchants and Postal Savings, and both banks will increase their fee rates in 2022.
Bank tellers are generally of high quality and have a stronger learning ability. With their rapid growth, even the bancassurance channel may not have many opportunities for insurance companies.
waiting for spring
The word “stable” is in the forefront or more favorable policies will be introduced, and insurance companies around the world are optimistic about the business growth trend in 2022
The most direct reason for the various dilemmas facing the industry is the lack of willingness to consume insurance. Among them, the epidemic intensifies insecurity, prompting people to reduce non-essential spending, and the economic downturn leads to the consumption level of some people. The problem does drop.
And this has become the most fundamental reason why many people are optimistic about the life insurance industry in 2022-many people in the industry are still optimistic about the growth of the whole year.
On the one hand, the Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for “stable”After that, all departments have regarded “stabilization” as one of the important annual goals. It is expected that under this goal, various types of incentives will be introduced one after another to stimulate economic development and at the same time drive consumers to increase their willingness to spend.
On the other hand, under the background of domestic interest rate cuts, the counter-cyclical nature of the insurance industry and the advantages of rigid payment will be further highlighted, which will also benefit the development of the insurance industry as a whole.
Some people in the industry predict that due to the Spring Festival in February, the performance of the insurance industry may still be in a sluggish state, but in March, with the successive release of various favorable policies, the insurance industry will gradually recover.
A newly released study by Deloitte also pointed out that a global survey it conducted in the summer of 2021 showed that the surveyed insurers around the world are still quite optimistic.About one-third of the 424 respondents from North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific regions and countries expect a “significant increase” in revenue over the next year.This optimism is largely in line with industry forecasts.
According to the Swiss Re Institute (Swiss ReInstitute), the global insurance business demand will show a growing trend. Compared with the 1.3% decline in 2020, the total premiums of all insurance types in 2021 and 2022 are expected to rebound by 3.3% and 3.9% respectively. %. Among them, in 2022, China is expected to lead the world with a growth rate of 9%, followed by emerging markets (excluding China) with a growth rate of 4.9%, while the growth rate of developed markets is expected to be relatively modest, only 3%.
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Responsible editor: Li Linlin