The government work report may boost the market, focusing on stable growth and technological innovation.(1) There are two aspects of this year’s government work report worthy of attention. One is the new formulation of the report: adding a detailed description of the field of infrastructure investment;educateThe expression of policies to improve people’s livelihood such as equity and population, and the expression of preferential tax policies for science and technology enterprises; second, the expression of the report may exceed market expectations: the expression of carbon neutrality is relatively relaxed and the energy consumption index is cancelled, and the expression of real estate policy is relatively relaxed. (2) Impact on market trends:GDPThe growth target and active fiscal policy statement will increase the profit expectations at the molecular end, and the liquidity and risk appetite will remain neutral, which will have a positive impact on the overall market. (3) Impact on industry allocation: focus on new and old infrastructure, real estate, digital economy, seed industry,educateand medicine.
In the short term, the external shock is still there, but the high point of the impact may have been reached; the economic fundamentals are expected to improve.According to our previous review of the influencing factors in March, external shocks and economic fundamentals are the core.From the current point of view, (1) the external shock is still continuing, but it may have reached the high point of the stage: first, the short-term impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is greater than that of the previous geopolitical conflicts, but the two sides entering the negotiation stage shows that the conflict may have reached the high point of the stage, And the original trend of the market will not change in the medium and long term; secondly, the highoil priceIt is difficult to maintain for a long time, and the expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates have eased. First, the high oil prices caused by geopolitical conflicts in history are short-term, and supply-side mitigating factors such as the entry of Iranian crude oil, the restart of U.S. shale oil, and the increase in OPEC production Second, the supply bottleneck in the United States has eased since the fourth quarter of last year due to higher-than-expected employment and increased labor participation rate. The inventory-to-sales ratio of retailers and port congestion are improving. With the high base last year, the inflation pressure in the United States may increase in the future. Easing, expectations of the Fed’s rate hikes may ease. (2) The economic fundamentals are expected to improve: on the one hand, the keynote of stable growth of the two sessions is obvious, and the continuous implementation of policies promotes the improvement of economic growth expectations;ChangheHigh-growth and other related industries are expected to see strong earnings growth.
Steady growth policy orientation increases molecular-end profit expectations, butLiquidity and risk appetite are still neutral, and the short-term market continues to fluctuate。(1) Under the guidance of the stable growth policy, infrastructure, real estate, and consumption may all make further efforts, and at the same time increase steadilyChangheEarnings expectations for high-growth industries are also expected to increase with the announcement of the first quarterly report. (2) The Fed’s interest rate hike is approaching, and macro liquidity remains neutral;New Development FundThere may be a slight rebound in short-term funds with sentiment. (3) The government work report has an obvious tone of steady growth, which may increase risk appetite; however, sentiment is still suppressed by the Fed’s interest rate hike and the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
industry configuration,Pay attention to new and old infrastructure related to stable growth, military industry whose military spending exceeds expectations, and new energy,semiconductormedicine, mass consumption expected to improve, TMT, etc.。onefrom the perspective of policy orientation, the policy orientation of stabilizing growth is clear, the direction of “East and West” related to new infrastructure construction, such as IDC, cloud computing, etc., old infrastructure-related buildings, building materials, etc., as well as aviation and military electronics with the growth rate of military expenditure exceeding expectations and other recommendations to focus on;Secondfrom the perspective of valuation and cost-effectiveness, focusing on the recent oversold but relatively high prosperity and growth of new energy mid-to-upstream metals and materials,semiconductorChinese equipment, new crown special drugs in medicine, etc.thirdfrom the perspective of expected improvement, focusing on the precision of epidemic prevention and mass consumption (tourism, hotels, aviation, catering, sports) benefiting from special relief policies, media catalyzed by the Metaverse, and the “14th Five-Year Plan” digital economy plan is well implemented computer, communication, etc.
risk warning:The overseas epidemic exceeded expectations, and economic recovery and policy introduction were less than expected.
(Article Source:Northeast Securitiesgraduate School)