Original title: Domestic refined oil price adjustment after the “three consecutive declines”, the experts predict that there is still room for the increase Source: China Economic Net
Domestic refined oil price adjustment after “three consecutive declines”, experts predict that there is still room for upward adjustment
Our reporter Wu Shan
Trainee reporter Yang Jie
On December 31, 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that according to the recent changes in oil prices in the international market and in accordance with the current refined oil price formation mechanism, from 24:00 on December 31, 2021, domestic gasoline and diesel prices (standard products) ) An increase of 140 yuan and 135 yuan per ton respectively.
As of this price adjustment cycle, the domestic refined oil market has experienced 25 rounds of price adjustment windows in 2021. This is not only the 15th increase in refined oil retail price adjustments since 2021, but also the “three consecutive declines” since November 2021. For the first time, the domestic refined oil price adjustment last year showed a pattern of “15 up, 6 down, and 4 stranded”.
Wang Luqing, a refined oil analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that in the pricing cycle since 24:00 on December 17, 2021, as the market’s awareness of the Omi Keron mutant virus continues to upgrade, aviation The gradual lifting of travel and restrictions has boosted demand in the oil market. At the same time, U.S. crude oil and refined oil inventories have fallen across the board, further reflecting the characteristics of tight supply in the oil market. International oil prices have fluctuated upward, and the center of gravity has steadily moved upwards. Among them, WTI has risen for 7 consecutive trading days. Affected by this, the rate of change in domestic crude oil prices turned from negative to positive and continued to rise.
“After the implementation of this price adjustment policy, the cost of consumer fuel increased slightly.” Wang Luqing cited as an example, taking a family car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L as an example, filling a tank of 92# gasoline will cost 5.5 yuan more, and 95# gasoline will cost more. It costs 6 yuan. From the perspective of logistics and transportation, taking the Steyr heavy-duty truck that runs 10,000 kilometers per month and consumes 38L per 100 kilometers as an example, the fuel cost of a single vehicle will increase by about 236.9 yuan before the next price adjustment window opens.
Regarding the wholesale price of refined oil, Wang Xueqin, a refined oil analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, said that at the beginning of the pricing cycle since 24:00 on December 17, 2021, the wholesale price of domestic main refined oil showed a steady downward trend; The trend of crude oil has strengthened and the New Year’s Day holiday is approaching. Some customers have replenishment needs, and the prices of domestic main refined oil products have rebounded steadily. It is expected that after the retail price increase, the domestic main gasoline and diesel batch-zero price gap may expand in a short time and then narrow.
Pan Wenjing, a refined oil analyst at Zhongyu Information, told the “Securities Daily” reporter that the main contradiction in crude oil prices in the market outlook is still centered on the imbalance between supply and demand. Affected by the global epidemic, market expectations for energy demand have been slightly hit, but the mainstream view is still bullish on crude oil. Many research institutions have warned that the world will enter an era of oil and gas shortages. On the whole, if there are no emergencies, crude oil prices will continue to rise slowly in the market outlook. Based on current oil prices, the next round of refined oil retail prices is still expected to increase within a narrow range.
Wang Xueqin believes that the current situation of tight energy and high prices in Europe will continue to provide support for expectations of short-term tightening of oil price fundamentals. Although the current market sentiment has improved, the impact of the mutant virus on demand recovery is still uncertain. It is expected that the international oil price will still be difficult to form a unilateral market, and it is likely to maintain a strong consolidation trend. According to Zhuochuang’s data model, the recalculated rate of change in crude oil prices is at a positive value, and the new round of refined oil retail price limits (price adjustment time is at 24:00 on January 17, 2022) is expected to begin with the upward adjustment. (Securities Daily)
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