The text of the research report
1. Market review
This week, M2301 closed at 4042 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85%, +34 yuan/ton, the opening price was 3998 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3997 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 4113 yuan/ton; the trading volume was 5.07 million lots, and the open interest was 164.2 Ten thousand hands, Masukura +58313 hands.
Second, this week’s news situation
1. Domestic production on October 28soybean mealSpot quotation (yuan/ton).
2. Data monitoring by the National Grain and Oil Information Center: Imported by major oil mills across the countrysoybeanInventories continued to decline. The domestic soybean crush fell slightly last week, but it was still higher than the arrival volume, and the soybean inventory continued to decline. Monitoring shows that as of the end of last week, the commercial inventory of imported soybeans by major oil mills in the country was 3.3 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 1.42 million tons from the same period last month, and a decrease of 1.63 million tons from the same period last year.
Brazil’s soybean export shipments declined significantly in October. Although the new season of soybeans in the United States was concentrated on the market, the low water level of the Mississippi River restricted soybean export shipments. Recently, the domestic soybean arrivals to Hong Kong have remained at a low level. Stay low. Last week, the soybean crush decreased, the output of soybean meal decreased, the delivery speed of feed breeding enterprises was basically normal, and the soybean meal inventory continued to decline.
On October 24, the soybean meal inventory of major domestic oil mills was 260,000 tons, 40,000 tons less than the same period last week, 150,000 tons less than the same period last month, 220,000 tons less than the same period last year, and 41,000 tons less than the average of the same period in the past three years. tons. In October, the arrival of soybeans to Hong Kong was low, which restricted the start-up of oil plants, and the demand of downstream enterprises performed well. It is expected that the short-term soybean meal inventory may continue to decline.
3. The latest statistics of U.S. soybean exports to China: 2.15 million tons of soybeans were shipped to China last week Washington, October 27 News: The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that the total U.S. soybean export sales to China (mainland) so far this year have been year-on-year. Up 10.6%, up 11.1% in the previous week.
As of October 20, 2022, the 2022/23 (starting on September 1) soybean export shipments from the United States to China (mainland) were 4.618 million tons, compared with 5.511 million tons in the same period last year. The U.S. shipped 2.15 million tons of soybeans to China that week, compared with 1.4 million tons the week before.
The amount of 2022/23 soybeans sold by the United States to China but not shipped so far is 13.13 million tons, up from 10.53 million tons in the same period last year. So far in 2022/23, total U.S. soybean sales to China (shipped and unloaded) are 17.75 million tons, an increase of 10.6% year-on-year, an increase of 11.1% year-on-year in the previous week, and a year-on-year increase of 12.0% two weeks ago. %.
U.S. soybean export sales totaled 31.55 million tons, an increase of 4.7% from 30.14 million tons in the same period last year, and a 5.0% increase last week. In the October 2022 supply and demand report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated that China’s soybean imports in 2022/23 will be 98 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons from September and an increase of 8.89% from 90 million tons in 2021/22.
4. National Bureau of Statistics: The national feed output in September was 29.965 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. The National Bureau of Statistics reported on October 27 that the national feed production in September was 29.965 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%; the national feed output from January to September was 23351.0 10,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of -2.1%.
5. Safras: As of October 21, Brazil’s soybean planting is one-third completed. Foreign media on October 25: Consulting agency Safras & Mercado said that as of October 21, Brazil’s soybean planting progress in 2022/23 was 32.4% , 19.1% last week and 35.8% in the same period last year.
6. General Administration of Customs: China’s soybean imports in September increased by 12% year-on-year October 24 News: Data released by China Customs on Monday showed that China’s soybean imports in September 2022 were 7.72 million tons, up from 7.17 million tons in August It increased by 7.7%, and increased by 12.2% from 6.88 million tons in the same period of the previous year, reversing the downward trend of several months.
China’s soybean imports from January to September this year were 69.04 million tons, down 6.6 percent from the same period last year, as the profit from crushing was meager for most of the year and the high price of imported soybeans affected the purchasing interest of Chinese buyers.
7. In the week ended October 20, 2022, the net sales of soybeans in the United States in 2022/23 were 1,026,400 tons. In the week ended October 20, 2022, the net sales of soybeans in the United States in 2022/23 were 1,026,400 tons. To China (1,115,600 tons, of which 664,000 tons were transferred to unknown destinations, and sales decreased by 10,000 tons).
Japan (119,300 tons, of which 85,300 tons were transferred from unknown destinations, and sales decreased by 300 tons), Pakistan (68,000 tons, of which 66,000 tons were transferred from unknown destinations), Mexico (63,600 tons, of which sales decreased by 7,000 tons) , Egypt (58,200 tons), but sales to unknown destinations fell by 487,000 tons.
Exports for the week amounted to 2,748,600 t, with major destinations including China (2,151,300 t), Mexico (184,400 t), Japan (153,500 t), Pakistan (68,000 t), and Arria (45,000 t).
8. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that the total U.S. soybean export sales to China (mainland) so far this year have increased by 10.6% year-on-year, and have increased by 11.1% in the previous week. As of October 20, 2022, the 2022/23 (starting on September 1) soybean export shipments from the United States to China (mainland) were 4.618 million tons, compared with 5.511 million tons in the same period last year.
The U.S. shipped 2.15 million tons of soybeans to China that week, compared with 1.4 million tons the week before. The amount of 2022/23 soybeans sold by the United States to China but not shipped so far is 13.13 million tons, up from 10.53 million tons in the same period last year.
So far in 2022/23, total U.S. soybean sales to China (shipped and unloaded) are 17.75 million tons, an increase of 10.6% year-on-year, an increase of 11.1% year-on-year in the previous week, and a year-on-year increase of 12.0% two weeks ago. %.
U.S. soybean export sales totaled 31.55 million tons, an increase of 4.7% from 30.14 million tons in the same period last year, and a 5.0% increase last week. In the October 2022 supply and demand report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated that China’s soybean imports in 2022/23 will be 98 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons from September and an increase of 8.89% from 90 million tons in 2021/22.
3. Overview
In the international market, as the U.S. soybean harvest draws to a close, rain in the U.S. Midwest is expected to slow down the harvest in some areas, but it will not affect the overall U.S. soybean production.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s export sales report on Thursday showed that U.S. soybean export sales for the 2022/23 marketing year in the week ended October 20 increased by a net 1.0664 million tons, which was in line with market expectations.
In addition, the current soybean planting progress in Brazil has exceeded 40%, and the Brazilian soybean has basically started normally. The output level estimated by mainstream analysis agencies exceeds 150 million tons. Recently, the much-needed rainfall in Argentina’s main agricultural production areas has eased the drought-affected farmland in time, and the country’s soybeans have begun to enter the planting period.
The weather conditions in South America are basically normal, and the record production is expected to provide an important guarantee for the global forward soybean supply. In the domestic market, the quantity of domestic soybeans arriving in Hong Kong at this stage is lower than the crushing demand of oil mills, and the inventory continues to decline. The high soybean meal price has reduced the enthusiasm of feed breeding enterprises to stock up, and the low soybean meal output and supply continue to support the spot market.
The domestic soybean crushing profit has rebounded, and Chinese importers are actively purchasing. The market expects that the imported soybeans will exceed 18 million tons in November and December, which is expected to ease the domestic soybean and soybean meal supply situation. The follow-up will focus on the sowing weather and planting progress in South America, domestic soybean arrivals to Hong Kong, changes in soybean meal stocks and the performance of the spot.
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