What would happen in Italy if Russia closed the gas tap? The government that designed them in the new Economics and Finance Document in which, obviously due to war, the economic context is clearly deteriorating, predicts the possible scenarios.
Giving up Russian gas: the two scenarios
The first less dramatic scenario envisages a replacement, also thanks to European coordination, of a large part of Russian gas from other sources. In this case, however, the price of gas would double from 100 euros per megawatt hour to 200 euros between November 2022 and February 2023 and that of electricity from 250 to 379 euros. But GDP, the government says in black and white, would hold up the impact by losing 0.8 points this year and 1.1 points next, while inflation would rise by 1.2 points now and 1.7 points in 2023, employment as early as 0.6 in 2022 and 0.7 in 2023.
The other scenario foresees that Italy will not be able to replace 18% of Russian gas this year and 15% in the next and then rationing should be carried out. In this scenario, electricity and gas prices would rise by 10% compared to the first scenario and GDP would collapse by 2.3% this year and 1.9% in 2023. In other words, recession.
“We will certainly do whatever is necessary to help families, businesses, to preserve the purchasing power of wages and pensions. All that is needed, of course, within a framework of European decisions, of balance of accounts. The willingness of the government is there and it is total ”he said in the press conference of the Council of Ministers. A speech emphasizes Gabriel Debach, market analyst, which in some way underlines that of 2012, where in addition to the facts, the markets also require reassurance and strong intentions. The key numbers of the programmatic framework in the Def confirm that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has effectively stemmed the race for Italian growth, with the first quarter of the year ending with a GDP down 0.5%. The trend growth slows to + 2.9%.