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Drones and air taxis: how the aviation market of the future will develop

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Drones and air taxis: how the aviation market of the future will develop

The German market for air taxis is expected to grow strongly in the coming years. According to an analysis by the Association of Unmanned Aviation (VUL), which is exclusively available to WELT AM SONNTAG, 300 of these means of transport should be in operation in Germany by 2030.

The VUL is already expecting the first commercial flight in Germany next year.

By 2030, the domestic market is expected to grow by more than 30 percent annually – to 167 million euros, according to the study on the German drone, air taxi and drone detection and defense market.

Germany is already the largest air taxi market in Europe. “The numbers are an important signal and show that we are leaders in this technology,” says Michael Garvens, Chairman of the Steering Committee of the VUL.

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“In order for this development to continue, it is important that the requirements for the ground and air-based operation of air taxis are determined in a timely manner.”

In fact, there are several hundred companies around the world working on air taxis. According to the association, however, none of the devices has yet been certified according to internationally recognized rules; all are currently in the testing and approval process.

Electric air taxis should carry people from 2025

In Andalusia, Spain, German start-up Lilium is testing its electric flying taxi. For the first time since 2019, the company has now allowed journalists to follow a test flight. WORLD was there.

Source: WELT/Gerhard Hegmann

However, the German company Velocopter has announced that it will be regularly used at the Olympic Games in Paris with its series model “VoloCity” as early as next year.

“I am sure that we will be the first in the world to fly commercially,” said company boss Dirk Hoke in April at the opening of a production facility in Bruchsal near Karlsruhe. The ADAC air rescue recently ordered two devices for testing.

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The global market is expected to grow even faster than Germany at more than 40 percent and the European market at more than 50 percent annually by 2030, according to the forecast of the VUL, an initiative of the Federal Association of the German Aviation Industry and the Federal Association of the German Aerospace Industry .

The number of drones is declining

The VUL study has been examining the drone market in Germany for years. The number of these devices has therefore decreased again. There are now only a good 415,000 left in Germany.

Almost 360,000 of them are privately owned, almost half of them are toy drones with a value of 300 euros and less.

The number of commercially used drones, on the other hand, continues to rise to 56,400. Their number has almost tripled since 2019.

They are used, among other things, in building construction, civil engineering and road construction, in agriculture, in mining, for inspecting rails and real estate, in logistics and by fire brigades and police.

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According to the study, there are almost 230 companies in Germany that focus on drone technology and unmanned aviation. Most of them are located in Bavaria and North Rhine-Westphalia.

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Drones for private use are almost exclusively imported into Germany. Even if their number is significantly higher than that of commercial devices, they only account for 17 percent of the value. Overall, the German drone market is on the verge of exceeding the billion euro mark.

However, the vast majority of this is accounted for by services that are provided with drones by all providers in all industrial sectors. “We are finding that more and more companies in the drone economy are recognizing the benefits of drones, manufacturing them, using them and finding further investors,” says Garvens from VUL.

Worldwide investments of 670 million euros

For the first time, the association analysis also takes a look at the market for drone detection and defence. Accordingly, 670 million euros have been invested worldwide in the past ten years, almost half in the last two years. In 2022 it was 215 million euros.

Germany is strongly represented with a share of 13 percent. All other European countries represent another 13 percent. Most of the companies have a military orientation.

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