The particularly mild winter, low industrial and domestic demand and excess supply led to a decrease in the price of gas by around 50% in the first quarter of 2023 at the Amsterdam TTF. This is what emerges from the Renantis report which analyzed the trend in energy prices in the first quarter of 2023.
Despite the significant drop, the price is still higher than the pre-crisis levels of gas, which began in March 2022. At the end of winter 2023, the level of gas stocks in Europe was 55%, the same level reached during the period of lockdowns. The considerable quantity of gas stored will facilitate the procurement process, which began in April, in view of the upcoming winter.
Electricity price decreased by 55%
The PUN (the reference price of electricity recorded on the Italian electricity exchange), influenced by the reduction in the price of gas and reduced industrial demand, has resumed a downward trend, despite the fact that prices are still above the threshold of 100 €/ MWh: in fact, in March it reached 136.3 €/MWh, compared to 308.7 €/MWh in the same month in 2022, with a decrease of over 55%.
The hydroelectric crisis
Despite the downward trend recorded so far, forecasts for summer 2023 seem to suggest a changing scenario: hydroelectric reserves are currently very low and the situation is particularly worrying throughout the Alpine region, where accumulated snow is even lower than in 2022 Like last year, reduced hydroelectric production in spring and summer will lead to an increase in the price.
At the same time, nuclear and thermal technologies will have to reduce their productivity due to the scarcity of water. The drought, therefore, together with the cut in oil production by OPEC, will play a fundamental role in defining the prices of energy commodities, underlining, once again, how climate change has a major impact on the energy market.