Environmental Protection and Public Utilities Weekly Report: Two provinces launch power transactions in 2022 and establish a trend of rising electricity prices

Weekly market review

This weekCSI 300 The index fell 0.67%, power andPublic utilitiesThe index rose 0.83%, and the weekly relative yield was 1.50%. In the first-level industry classification of Shenwan,Public utilitiesThe increase was ranked 8th among 28 industries. Among them, the environmental protection engineering and service sector fell 2.71%; among the power sector sub-sectors, thermal power rose 2.15%; hydropower rose 1.15%, new energy power generation fell 1.85%; water sector fell 2.07%;GasThe sector fell 0.72%; the testing services sector fell 0.38%.

Change reviews

Coal power has received policy attention. At the same time, the results of Jiangsu’s annual long-term cooperation agreement have risen from the benchmark. The annual transaction results are optimistic. The thermal power sector (+2.15%) continues to rise, and thermal power is transformed into a large-scale power generation operator of new energy.Huaneng InternationalH shares (+16.56%), Anhui’s largest power generation groupWanneng Power(+16.42%) rose sharply.Electronic product recycling and processing environmental service providerChina Re Capital(+17.14%) The actual controller plans to inject 100% equity of China Re Resources; Ningxia new energy power generation operation and equipment manufacturing integrated platformSilver Star Energy(+14.16%) rose.

Special study: The two provinces will carry out power trading in 2022 and establish a trend of rising power prices. Jiangsu’s average power transaction price in 2022 will be 466.69 yuan/MWh.Medium GreenThe average price of electricity transactions was RMB 462.88/MWh, an increase of 18.38% (RMB 0.072). The average price of bilateral power transactions in Guangdong in 2022 is 497.04 yuan/MWh, and the average price of renewable energy power is 513.89 yuan/MWh, an increase of 10.99% (0.051 yuan). It is expected that the price of thermal power will continue to rise generally, the price of green power transaction is expected to be between the thermal power market transaction and the benchmark price, and the increase in the scale of green power transaction is expected to be gradually reflected in monthly transactions.

Investment Strategy

　　Public utilities:1. The market-oriented reform of electricity is advancing, and electricity prices can better reflect supply and demand, cost, and environmental value. The cost of new energy construction continues to decline. New energy operators have “triple” certainty, and “quantity”—the growth rate of wind and solar installations is high. “Price”—the price of thermal power rises, and the green premium is superimposed to open up the profitability of green power;Performance“—This year’s low-cost wind turbines and rush to install sea breeze to ensure next year’s performance 2. Policies promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy. The long-term coal price + long-term power price policy is expected to be implemented, the linkage mechanism is formed, the market-oriented transaction of coal and electricity is expanded, and the profitability of thermal power is inflection point Appeared. 3. New energy is the main new power system construction, which is deeply beneficial to new energy generators and integrated electric power services. It is recommended to actively transform to new energy and have abundant cash flow.China Resources Power、Huaneng InternationalEtc.; new energy operation leader with capital cost and resource advantagesThree Gorges Energy、Longyuan Power, Recommend good cash flow, “nuclear power and new energy” two-wheel driveChina Nuclear Power, Electric energy integrated serviceSuwen Power。Environmental protection industry: 1. High performance growth and low valuation; 2. Business model improvement and continued improvement in operating indicators; 3. Steady increase in operating attributes appeared, and yield and cash flow indicators continued to improve.

risk warning

The policy is not as expected; the growth rate of electricity consumption has fallen; the price of electricity has been lowered; the price of natural gas terminals has been lowered.

(Article Source:Guosen Securities）

Article source: Guosen Securities

Editor in charge: 6

Original Title: Environmental Protection and Public Utilities Weekly Report: Two provinces launch power transactions in 2022 to establish a trend of rising power prices