Listen to the audio version of the article
(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) – The fear of yet another rate rise, combined with that of a recession in the Old Continent, do not let go of the European stock markets which are moving in mixed conditions. Down Milan (FTSE MIB) and Frankfurt (DAX 40), around parity Paris (CAC 40) and Madrid (IBEX 35). The so-called “iPhone war” also weighs on the ambitions of European investors: Beijing’s decision to clamp down on government employees on the use of the famous smartphone, a move that has been sending Apple shares into the “red” on Wall Street for two days . But attention is also on the future of monetary tightening, given that the stability of the US labor market (and unemployment benefits) could lead the Fed to postpone the stop to the increase in the cost of money. And in the meantime, news is expected from the G20 in India, which will start in the next few hours.
Wall Street rises after negative week on interest rate fears
Wall Street on the rise. The indices are set to close the week negatively – short, given Monday’s closing for Labor Day – due to renewed fears about further interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, given the strength of the economic data and the oil prices, which on Wednesday hit their highest levels since November due to the decision by Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend production cuts. Now, the probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 points in November is at 37.2%, up nearly 4 percentage points from a week ago, according to the CME Group. For analysts, there is a 93% probability that in two weeks, however, rates will be kept at the current level (5.25%-5.50%). The increase in oil prices, combined with a stronger-than-expected economy, will weigh on the Fed’s decisions. On stocks, the Apple stock rises again, the best on the Dow Jones in progress. Over the past two days, it has lost 6.4%, wiping out nearly $200 billion in market value, due to China’s iPhone bans.
Saipem is saved in Piazza Affari, a new knockout for Fineco
On Piazza Affari the best of the main index is Saipem which was awarded two new contracts for offshore activities in the Ivory Coast and in Italy, for a total value of 850 million euros. After a good start, the main banking stocks lose share, from Banco Bpm, which records the strengthening of its capital by Enasarco, to Banca Pop Er, passing through Banca Mps and Mediobanca, which suffers from the tensions between the top management of Piazzetta Cuccia and the Delfin holding in view of the renewal of the institute’s top management. Ultimately, after the previous defeat, Finecobank is giving ground, also held back by the judgment of JP Morgan. Among the oil companies, the worst is Eni, while the automotive sector remains marked by sales with Stellantis, Pirelli & C and Cnh Industrial. On the contrary, Iveco Group (+1.2%), Prysmian and Erg are saved.
Euro returns to 1.07 dollars, jump in gas prices (+10%)
On the currency market, the euro is dancing just below the threshold of 1.07 dollars while gas soars by 10% to 35.8 euros per MWh in the wake of the Australian strikes. Oil is taking a breather after the recent rush linked to the decision by Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend production cuts with the WTI trading at 87.5 dollars a barrel.