In September, the confidence of European consumers in the economic outlook recorded a new decline of 3.5 points “hitting the lowest level ever”. This is what emerges from the data on the performance of the ESI index released today by the EU Commission. Overall, the ISI – which measures the economic sentiment of industry, consumers, services, trade, construction – recorded drops of 3.5 and 3.6 points respectively for the EU as a whole and for the Eurozone. For Italy, the decline in the ESI was 3.7 points, the same as in Holland and only lower than that of Germany (4.8 points).
Parallel to the decline in the ESI, in September the EU Commission recorded an increase in the Eui impact (plus 3.8 points) which measures the degree of uncertainty about the prospects of the European economy. Also in this case, the note released by Brussels emphasizes that the increase in uncertainty was found in all economic sectors. But it was among consumers that it hit a level never seen before.
The estimate made by the European Commission with ESI contradicts what the ISAE index (Institute for Economic Studies and Analysis) affirms, according to which the confidence of Italian consumers had returned to rise. In August it touched 111.8, the highest values since March 2007. The indications are particularly favorable for the personal economic situation which recorded a jump of more than six points.
In detail, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) continued its sharp decline both in the Ur (-3.5 points to 92.6) and in the Eurozone (-3.6 points to 93.7). The employment expectations indicator (Eei) decreased more moderately (-0.8 points to 106.4 in the EU and -1.2 points to 106.7 in the euro area), remaining well above of the long-term average. In the Union, the sharp decline in September in the ESI was driven by a significant deterioration in confidence in all business sectors surveyed and another particularly marked decline among consumers. Among the major economies of the EU, the ESI recorded, in addition to Germany and Italy, a sharp decline in the Netherlands (-3.7), France (-3.2), Poland (-2.4) and, to a lesser extent also Spain (-1.0).