The unknown factor is linked to the bad weather that continues to hit Italy and which could jeopardize the cultivation of wheat which, according to estimates by Crea, the agri-food research body, should exceed four million tons, 12% more than the campaign last year. Production is growing despite the reduction in cultivated areas and is part of a world scenario that attests to a substantial recovery. The areas subject to control for the production of certified seed also increased (+8.5%) also due to the new rules of the common agricultural policy which will come into force in 2024.
The estimates were disclosed today in Foggia during the DurumDays 2023 event, which every year brings together all the players in the supply chain to take stock of the forecasts of the new campaign which starts from an all-time low stock situation. A factor which, according to the Alleanza delle Cooperative Agroalimentari, together with other critical elements «such as the actual production volumes still dependent on the level of yields (both in Europe and in North America) and the contraction of the price premium of durum wheat compared to the other cereals, soft wheat and maize, which increases the possibility of transmission of tensions from one market to another which can once again put tensions on prices».
For Confagricoltura “it is necessary to manage the price transmission mechanism responsibly which, in defining a new structure between industry and distribution channels, adequately enhances all the players in the supply chain, agriculture in primis. Otherwise, the risk is to worsen the supply of durum wheat. Italy is the first processor in Europe and we cannot afford to lose this record». It is no coincidence, then, that Enzo Martinelli, president of the Italmopa – Association of Industrial Mills of Italy durum wheat mills section, underlines how «the performance of the national durum wheat market cannot ignore the upward or downward evolution of the markets international. Italy exports around 60% of its production of pasta, sales that can only be guaranteed by resorting to imports which structurally constitute 40% of our needs». This is why «supply chain agreements are the key to enhancing Made in Italy».
An enhancement that can also pass through the certification of seeds, as Tommaso Brandoni, president of the cereal section of Assosementi, claims: «Thanks to genetic improvement we are able to make available to farmers more resistant varieties to diseases, to limit chemical inputs, and more tolerant to the effects of climate change, a particularly serious challenge at the moment”. Innovations that «are transferred to the field only thanks to the use of certified seed which, in addition to being a technical means to guarantee quality productions, completes traceability along the supply chain and allows the research programs already in place in our country to be kept active ».