The US dollar fell on Friday (November 12), and high inflation caused a serious blow to consumer confidence. However, after Wednesday’s stronger-than-expected US inflation data prompted investors to bet on US interest rate hikes in advance, the US dollar index rose 0.86 this week. %, the biggest weekly increase in the past three months. COMEX December gold futures rose, closing at $1,685.50 per ounce, the highest closing price of the most active contract since June 11. Lower oil prices, a stronger U.S. dollar and the potential threat of the US releasing strategic oil reserves have caused crude oil futures prices to fall this week.
Commodity closing, COMEX December gold futures closed up 0.3%, at US$1,685.50 per ounce; WTI December crude oil futures closed down US$0.80, or 0.98%, to US$80.79 per barrel; Brent January crude oil futures closed down 0.70 The US dollar fell 0.84% to US$82.17 per barrel.
US stocks closed: the S&P 500 Index rose 0.7% to 4,682.85; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5% to 36,100.31; the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1% to 15,860.96; the Nasdaq 100 Index rose 1 %, reported 16199.88 points; Russell 2000 index rose 0.1%, reported 2411.118 points.
List of major global markets
The U.S. stock market climbed on Friday. The S&P 500 index rose 0.7% for the second day in a row. Technology and communications service stocks led the gains. Inflationary pressures continued to affect the market. Although global stock markets have experienced weekly declines for the first time since the beginning of October, the decline in stock markets is not large compared with the turmoil in the bond market. After the strong corporate earnings season.
Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at the National Association of Banks of America, said that thanks to economic growth, both cyclical stocks and growth stocks have performed well. We believe that cyclical stocks can withstand the impact of inflation, and the market’s demand for growth companies is expected to remain Strong.
Precious metals and crude oil
Spot gold closed up slightly on Friday at US$1,864.90 per ounce. This week’s cumulative increase was 2.56%, recording its best performance in six months. The sharp rise in US consumer prices has enhanced the attractiveness of gold as an inflation hedging tool. However, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose slightly, limiting the upside of gold prices.
Earlier, the price of gold fell by nearly 1%. Since November 3, the price of gold has risen by as much as $110. This is due to the deepening concerns about inflation and the assurance of major central banks that they will temporarily keep interest rates low. Phillip Streble, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said that today is a callback day, and traders have profited after an incredible rise.
The price of gold this week also got rid of the impact of the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. In October, the consumer price index (CPI) jumped sharply and became the focus. A stronger U.S. dollar usually suppresses the demand for gold from buyers who hold other currencies.
Societe Generale analysts predict that the average price of gold in the first quarter of 2022 is expected to be $1,950 per ounce, as the Fed renewed its commitment to support the economy while tolerating rising inflation.
UBS analyst Wayne Gordon and others wrote in the report that we believe that the CPI is at risk of further strengthening in early 2022, which may further stimulate the demand for gold; the slowdown in inflation expectations and the rise in nominal interest rates should prompt the United States to actually Interest rates eventually rise and put pressure on gold, but this may take longer. The bank raised its price target at the end of March to US$1,800 per ounce, and indicated that there is a possibility of breaking through US$1,900 in the short term.
U.S. oil fell more than 1% in late trading to close at $80.69 per barrel, falling for the third consecutive week, setting a record for the longest weekly decline since March. US President Biden kept investors wondering whether he would take action to curb inflation. Soaring energy prices are rising.
After White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki refused to disclose whether Biden planned to release the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the late decline narrowed. She said that the US government has been urging oil-producing countries to increase crude oil production and is seeking to ensure that gas stations are free from price fraud.
Biden has been considering measures including the release of strategic oil reserves to reduce gasoline costs; gasoline prices have reached a seven-year high. People familiar with the matter said that his team of senior assistants has been discussing potential measures. However, consensus has been difficult to reach. Some officials of the US Department of Energy opposed the release of strategic oil reserves, while White House aides called for the release of reserves and even the suspension of US crude oil exports.
The challenge Biden faces with regard to gasoline costs is particularly evident in California, where gasoline prices are usually higher than elsewhere in the United States. According to AAA data, the current average retail price in the state is $4.65 per gallon, only 2 cents lower than the record set in 2012.
Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group Inc., said that oil prices are in a callback mode, and the first key support level is an important psychological threshold of US$80 per barrel.
As consumption rebounded after the epidemic, oil prices have risen this year, pushing US consumer prices to the fastest growth rate in 30 years. Soaring fuel and energy costs have also exacerbated global inflationary pressures. And no one thinks that price increases will fade. Societe Generale raised its oil price forecast for 2022 by US$10 per barrel.
Foreign exchange
The U.S. dollar index fell 0.02% to 95.11, which was as low as 94.99 due to consumer confidence data; earlier, the index hit its highest level since July last year. High inflation has dealt a serious blow to consumer confidence, but after Wednesday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data prompted investors to bet on U.S. interest rate hikes ahead of schedule, the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.86% this week, setting the largest single in nearly three months. Weekly increase.
U.S. short-term bond yields have risen, and five-year Treasury bond yields have hit their highest since February 2020. Investors have increased their bets this week that the Fed will have to raise interest rates sooner than expected.
Erik Nelson, a macro strategist at Wells Fargo Bank, said that consumers are obviously more worried about real income growth. The current rate of inflation exceeds the rate of wage growth, which is suppressing market sentiment. This intensified concerns about growth and pushed the U.S. dollar lower against most currencies, especially as U.S. Treasury yields fell and the U.S. dollar fell against the Japanese yen.
Scotia Bank chief foreign exchange strategist Shaun Osborne said that today’s confidence data may surprise the market and may push the dollar back slightly from its high. Although the bond market closed on Thursday interrupted the market’s flow this week, Osborn said that the market is still “obviously concerned about inflation.” He said this “should mean that the U.S. dollar remains relatively well supported. The next few months will be deadlocked.” , We will pay close attention to the actions of the Fed.
Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of foreign exchange strategy at Commerzbank, said that from my point of view, rising global inflation is pushing the dollar to strengthen. According to market expectations, the Federal Reserve will be one of the central banks that use interest rate hikes to respond more.
The euro fell 0.05% against the US dollar to 1.1445. Earlier it hit 1.1433, the lowest in the past 16 months. The fall in German bond yields put pressure on the euro; the market is worried about the high number of new crown infections in Germany and expects the European Central Bank to keep the pigeons. Faction policy. Investors are becoming more pessimistic about the outlook for the euro. Against the backdrop of an economic slowdown, it seems unlikely that the European Central Bank will change its extremely dovish policy stance in the short term.
The U.S. dollar fell 0.15% against the yen to 113.89, hitting a low of 113.76 during the session; dragged down by falling oil prices, rising stocks and cross-selling; the currency pair rose 0.42% this week; the euro fell 0.28 against the yen on Friday %, to a one-month low of 130.24.
The pound bulls got a little respite. GBP/USD rebounded after hitting a new low in 2021. However, as technical and fundamental factors point to further declines, this round of gains may only provide temporary relief. As the dollar weakened and the European Union expressed its commitment to reaching an agreement with the United Kingdom on the Northern Ireland issue, the pound rose 0.31% to 1.3413 late against the dollar, boosted by short covering; the currency pair fell 0.63% this week.
The U.S. dollar fell 0.23% to 1.2550 against the Canadian dollar, but rose 0.75% this week; the risk-sensitive Australian dollar climbed 0.53% to $0.733 against the U.S. dollar, earlier hitting the lowest level of 0.7277 in more than a month; the New Zealand dollar rose 0.33% against the U.S. dollar To 0.7044.
International news
[U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly collapsed in early November, and its initial value fell to 66.8, a record low in the last 10 years, because Americans are panicked about inflation.]Richard Curtin, director of consumer confidence surveys at the University of Michigan, believes that consumer confidence has declined. It means that “inflation in the United States is accelerating, and more and more consumers believe that the policies that the Biden administration has introduced but are ineffective have not yet helped reduce the damage caused by the soaring inflation.” In November, out of every four consumers surveyed, One person mentioned that inflation has caused their living standards to shrink, and those with declining incomes and elderly consumers said they have been the hardest hit.
[The Federal Reserve Bank of New York announces the first Treasury bond purchase schedule after the Fed’s decision to reduce the size]The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a schedule for the purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds from November 15 to December 13 to implement the Fed’s decision on November 3. Reduce the monthly purchase amount from 80 billion U.S. dollars to 70 billion U.S. dollars.
[The Biden administration is looking for ways to reduce gasoline prices. Experts say the release of reserves and export bans are not ideal]White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said that US President Biden and the US government are working to find ways to reduce rising gasoline prices. The US government has been urging oil-producing countries to increase crude oil production, and is trying to ensure that gas stations do not drive up prices. But she declined to say whether Biden plans to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Experts warn that the use of strategic reserves may only have a small impact on consumer prices, and the resumption of export bans may further disrupt the market.
Domestic news
[Beijing Stock Exchange will open on the 15th: 10 new shares will be listed collectively, and over 4 million investors can participate in the Beijing Stock Exchange]On the 12th, the Beijing Stock Exchange announced that it will open on November 15. At that time, 71 listed companies on the selection layer of the New Third Board will be transferred to the Beijing Stock Exchange. In addition, 10 companies that have completed public offerings and other procedures will be listed directly on the Beijing Stock Exchange. On the first day of market opening, the number of companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange will reach 81. As of November 12, a total of more than 2.1 million investors have made appointments to open the CBEX qualified investor authority. After the market opens, the total number of investors who can participate in CBEX transactions exceeds 4 million. A total of 112 securities companies obtained membership qualifications and became full members of the Beijing Stock Exchange. (CCTV News)
[The People’s Bank of China: Resolutely curb the monopoly and disorderly expansion of the financial service industry and maintain the steady and healthy development of the real estate market]The People’s Bank of China Party Committee held a meeting, and the meeting emphasized that focusing on the problem of uneven development and insufficient economic, social and people’s livelihood, and innovating currency Policy tools to guide financial institutions to increase support for small and micro enterprises, green development, technological innovation, rural revitalization, and regional coordinated development to promote common prosperity. Accelerate the construction of the financial rule of law, improve the level of financial service guarantees and the protection of financial consumer rights, resolutely curb monopoly and disorderly expansion of capital in the financial service industry, and maintain the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
[The New Year’s Eve market is expected to become the next investment time, star institutions have drawn three key tracks]Haitong Securities Chief Economist and Chief Strategy Analyst Xun Yugen said that drawing on historical experience, this year’s New Year’s Eve market is expected to start earlier. Through further statistics on institutional surveys and optimistic ratings, it is found that the three major industries such as banking, beauty care, and food and beverage are regarded as important main lines of the cross-year market. (Securities Daily)