In light of the accounts for the first 9 months of 2022, Fineco has improved the outlook.
The current expectations for 2022 and 2023, the note reads, have greatly improved compared to the previous ones thanks to the diversified business model, since the expected increase in the financial margin is significantly higher than the slight decrease in the growth of investing revenues.
With regard to banking revenues, the expected financial margin (interest margin and profits from treasury management) for the whole of 2022 is approximately 380 million, while for FY23 a further growth of the financial margin of at least 70 million is expected. % compared to FY22 (considering the early repayment of the TLTRO in November 2022).
For the following years, the financial margin is expected to continue to benefit from the new interest rate scenario thanks to the sensitivity and the increase in volumes.
With regard to Banking Commissions, in the whole of 2022 they are expected to be over 50 million, while in FY23 they are expected to increase further thanks to the increase in the customer base.
The forecasts for investing revenues are for the whole of 2022 an increase in revenues of around 10% y / y, including the market effect up to October, with higher margins on management fees y / y; and estimated net deposits under management of approximately 3 billion (FAM’s retail managed deposits of approximately 2.5 billion). A strong acceleration in revenues and margins is expected for the following years thanks to the net inflows managed in the area of 5 billion per year; the increased penetration of Fineco Asset Management within Fineco’s managed assets, with retail net inflows of around 4.5 billion annually; after tax margins in Fineco management fees confirmed up to around 55 bps in 2024 (pre-tax margins at around 73 bps).
For brokerage revenues, an anti-cyclical business area, solid results are expected with a much higher revenue base than in the pre-Covid period (with the same volatility and market volumes).
The forecasts on operating costs indicate growth of approximately 5% y / y for the whole of 2022, excluding approximately 7 million of additional costs linked to the strategic discontinuity of FAM and additional marketing costs. In the coming months, the Bank will invest a few million more in marketing to take advantage of the strengthening of structural trends.
Systemic contributions are expected in a range between approximately 45 and 47 million for the annual contribution to the Deposit Guarantee Schemes (DGS) and to the Single Resolution Fund, within the provisions for risks and charges, for the increase in deposits tied up within the banking system.
Regarding the capital ratios, the minimum level of CET1 at 17%, leverage ratio widely under control e
expected in a range 3.75 / 4.0% in 2022.
The dividend per share is expected to increase steadily.
Finally, in the next few years the expectation of robust, high-quality collections with a focus is confirmed
on maintaining the mix mainly oriented towards the managed, thanks to the new initiatives undertaken.