Despite inflation, people in Germany put a lot of money on the high edge. The savings rate is likely to fall in the current year. Nevertheless, private households are likely to become richer overall.
Private households in Germany are likely to one in the current year extrapolation the DZ Bank according to despite falling Sparquote become richer overall. Price gains on the stock markets and higher interest rates suggest that nominal financial assets will increase by around six percent to almost 7.9 trillion euros, forecast economists at the leading cooperative institute in Frankfurt.
“After private financial assets fell in 2022 due to share price losses following the start of Russia’s war of aggression on the Ukraine was still shrinking, a dynamic increase in financial assets (…) can be expected for 2023,” writes DZ Bank economist Michael Stappel.
figures of the Germans Federal Bank According to this, the financial assets of private households in Germany at the end of last year were around 7,254 billion euros, well below the record value of 7,624 billion euros at the end of 2021. Both the Bundesbank and DZ Bank take cash and bank deposits, securities such as shares and funds into account in their evaluations Claims against insurance companies. DZ Bank’s figures are higher because it includes non-profit organizations such as foundations and non-profit associations. Neither the Bundesbank nor the DZ Bank provide information on the distribution of assets.
However, people in this country will probably spend less money on the high in 2023 Kante lay than in previous years. Stappel expects a savings rate of 10.7 percent Federal Association of German Volksbanken and Raiffeisenbanken (BVR) recently predicted a value of 10.6 percent for this year. Private households would therefore set aside EUR 10.70 or EUR 10.60 for every EUR 100 of disposable income.
“If, according to our estimates, the savings rate falls to 10.7 percent this year and to 10.6 percent in 2024, that’s not a low savings rate, but rather a normalization,” said Stappel. The savings rate would thus level off again at the level of the years before the corona pandemic.
During the pandemic, many people had more money left over than in normal times, for example because vacation trips were canceled and leisure facilities were temporarily closed. Therefore, the savings rate in Germany in 2020 according to figures from Federal office of statistics hit a record at 16.4 percent of disposable income and had remained at a high level in 2021 at 15.1 percent. Last year, the savings rate fell to 11.4 percent.
The fact that the savings rate is likely to remain comparatively high in the current year is explained by the DZ Bank analysis, among other things, with the fact that tenants put money aside for any additional energy payments and homeowners make provisions for energy-related renovations. Often, funds simply remain in the checking account or are parked in call money accounts, where Savings can be switched quickly if necessary.
However, the still comparatively high inflation eats away at interest income. The real interest rate – i.e. the interest for savings after deducting the rate of inflation – remains “still deep in the red” despite the rise in interest rates, explains Stappel: “Positive real returns can only be expected if new investments benefit from the rise in interest rates and inflation rates are low again.” (dpa)