GENOA. The crisis will last “at least four years” and if energy prices remain at this level “the energy industry has no prospects, because the increases are not transferable”. The objectives of the “Fit for 55” are almost a mirage for Italy that does not have nuclear power. The analysis on the energy transition by Franco Bernabè, president of Acciaierie d’Italia, does not discount: «Anyone who had political responsibility should have brought the debate back to rationality, instead of being carried away by the Thunberg media wave. Instead of planning the long-term well-being of their countries, today’s politicians go after social media ”.
Does the crisis have roots in 2021?
«Gas prices, on which electricity prices depend, began to increase starting from the second quarter of 2021, during the summer there was an acceleration. The explosion was caused by a concomitance of supply and demand-side factors. The latter was affected by the reduction in wind power generation in the North Sea and hydroelectric power in Argentina and Brazil. At the same time, there was a strong recovery in energy demand in Europe, Japan, Korea and China, as a result of the post-Covid economic recovery. At that point Russia moved, preparing the conditions for attacking Ukraine ».
How did Russia move?
«Starting from the third quarter of 2021, while maintaining the levels of supplies on long-term contracts, it drastically reduced the offer on the spot market: thus the race to rise in prices was triggered. The Ttf, the gas exchange index in the Dutch market, increased ninefold in that period ”.
Will the crisis continue for years?
“At least four, until new LNG plants go into operation internationally. Russian gas will continue to fail because relations between Europe and Russia are now compromised, the geopolitical confrontation with Moscow will continue, the tension will persist ».
Is Russian gas irreplaceable?
“The investment plans of the large gas producers allow for a substantial increase in LNG export capacity only starting from 2026. This is because since 2015 investments in new projects have been drastically reduced by the opposition to fossil fuels”.
Did Europe shoot itself in the foot by itself?
“He did the math without the host. It took European industry 50 years to replace oil and coal with gas. The EU Commission, not taking into account the complexity of the project, thought that in just 10 years gas could be replaced with renewables ”.
Greta Thunberg?
«The media explosion of the Thunberg phenomenon is difficult to justify. The message of decarbonising right away is irrational. Anyone who had political responsibility should have brought the debate back into rationality, instead of being carried away ».
Who has missed?
«The whole political system, national and international. Today’s politicians run after social media. Instead of planning the well-being of their countries in the long term, by telling the truth, they sought an easy consensus by renouncing a serious energy transition project, which must be done “.
Nuclear and gas are in the taxonomy. Can Italy, which does not have nuclear power, achieve the objectives of the “Fit for 55”?
«The objectives of the Fit for 55 are extremely difficult to achieve, if not at a huge cost for the whole European industry. For Italy the cost is even higher. Germany has nuclear power and has many more renewables than us, just like Spain, France has nuclear power. Here renewables have found the same opposition as fossil fuels and, despite the government’s effort to accelerate investments, we will hardly be able to bridge the gap “.
The 2035 goal of private electric mobility?
“I don’t understand why Europe, instead of just setting the goal of decarbonisation, also establishes the tools to get there. Looking at the life cycle of the car, biodiesel fueled internal combustion engines are more environmentally friendly than electric motors. We need technological neutrality. Even assuming that in 2035 all cars are electric, which is impossible, most will be parked on the street: where do we put the charging stations? Furthermore, the entire electricity network should be adapted to a higher power requirement ».
Is Europe self-defeating?
“Cingolani fought to move the term, earning us the nickname of an anti-environmentalist country: ridiculous. We are among the world leaders in the circular economy in industrial production, one of the supply chains is that of biodiesel from waste developed by Eni, which converted the Gela and Marghera refineries ».
Industry and families?
“If prices remain at this level, the energy-intensive industry has no prospects, the increases are not transferable. Inflation, as there are no mechanisms that allow it to be absorbed, will generate social problems. Inflation and recession cause consumption to collapse: Italy risks going back 30 years, at which point, paradoxically, it will be able to reach the EU emissions targets ».
The government?
“In terms of mitigating the effects and finding alternatives, I think he did the best he could do. Unfortunately, the situation depends on factors unrelated to the levers that the executive has at its disposal ”
Arvedi has completed decarbonisation. Will Acciaierie d’Italia make it?
«It can do so, on two preconditions: that the company continues to produce with the current plant equipment until the new plants start running; and the availability of financial resources to invest in decarbonisation, which must be sought in the NRP ».