In these hot days for the COP26 in place a Glasgow, reflections on climate change remain at the center of the scene. Even GDP, an economic indicator that ended up in green debates with not exactly flattering mentions, over time can prove to be a precious ally in reducing vulnerability in the face of extreme weather events and favoring the development of countries. All this emerges from an analysis published by Francesco Ramella on lavoce.info.
Learning from 2020
Let’s start with a first assumption, economic growth e reduction of pollution they must go hand in hand. If GDP falls, emissions fall and the climate benefits: true. We saw it in 2020: the severe limitation of economic activities and mobility with the measures set up to curb Covid-19 resulted in a reduction in world GDP of over 3 percent; in the same year, CO2 emissions into the atmosphere fell by 6.7 percent as never before. The human consequences, however, have been dramatic: for the first time in recent decades the number of people living in absolute poverty has increased (by 120 million).
The necessary programming
We cannot think of a positive future for it human development with a reduction emissions from CO2 abrupt and random. Everything must be planned, over time, without affecting the economic activities of the countries. The HDI, human development index, recently proposed by the Nobel laureate Parisi as an alternative to GDP, is actually a very close relative: because without growth, there is no well-being but only an increase in hardship and poverty. In fact, alongside the measures relating to life expectancy and the level of education, the human development index also includes the level of income. But, even if the indicator is recalculated excluding the latter factor, the picture that emerges remains largely unchanged. We live better where the GDP is highest and vice versa.
The well-being created by the GDP
That you live better where the PIL is higher is a general consideration also valid in reference to climatic vulnerability. If on the one hand, the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere over the last one hundred and fifty years has increased the frequency of some extreme events, on the other hand, economic growth and the development of scientific knowledge have proved to be very effective vaccines in reducing their impact. human: as GDP grows, the number of victims is drastically reduced.
The cases of Bangladesh and the USA
Exemplary in this regard is the case of Bangladesh, one of the countries considered most at risk due to the increase in level of the big: half a century of economic development and good governance have made it much more resilient than it was until the 1970s. And in the States United from the sixties to today, thanks above all to the diffusion of air conditioning systems, the mortality per excess heat decreased by 75%.
The reflection on the future
Therefore, by drawing a general picture it is certainly important to ask oneself goals ambitious on the issues environmental. But we must do this without forgetting that even in the future the overall living conditions, especially for the poorest countries, will depend much more on income growth than on the evolution of the climate. Governments have the task of placing the costs of the ecological transition as little as possible on the pockets of citizens.