In the United States, the focus remains on the strike by workers at the car manufacturers: the Uaw union has started strikes at the plants of General Motors, Ford and Stellantis and it is the first time that all three US car companies have faced strikes at the same time. President Joe Biden called on automakers to improve their bids, stressing that record profits should come with “record contracts.” General Motors stocks are at a loss, as are those of Ford and Stellantis; on Friday, at the end of the first day of the strike, GM had gained over 0.8%, Stellantis over 2.1%, while Ford’s stock had closed little moved (-0.04%). Arm’s stock also suffered a loss, having debuted on Thursday with a rise of 24.7%, followed by a decline of 4.5% on Friday.
Builders’ confidence (Nahb) down in September, below estimates
The confidence of US home builders decreased in September for the second consecutive month, after seven increases in a row, preceded in turn by twelve months of declines due to difficulties in obtaining materials and the increase in the cost of mortgages. The reference index of the National Home Builders Association (Nahb) fell from 50 to 45 points, with expectations at 49, precisely due to the increase in interest rates for mortgages. In November 2022, the figure had fallen to 31 points, the lowest since 2012, excluding two spring months of 2020. In November 2020, the record was reached at 90 points. A figure above 50 points indicates that conditions are considered good by most manufacturers; on the contrary, conditions are considered difficult.
In Milan the banks do well, St and Eni pay off
The Milanese index is “ballasted” by utilities such as A2a and Moncler’s luxury which is affected by the intermittent recovery of Beijing’s economy. Among the few stocks to be saved were the banks at the center of the risk: Banca Mps, Banca Pop Er and Banco Bpm. Sales on Mediobanca on the day of the appointments committee and the clash with the strong shareholder Delfin in view of the renewal of the governance. Also rewarded by purchases were Davide Campari, Recordati and Saipem which held thanks to the rise in crude oil (Tenaris instead fell. The big banking companies Unicredit and especially Intesa Sanpaolo were weak. Among the utilities, Italgas and Banca Mediolanum ended the day in negative territory in the managed savings sector (-2%) and the multiutility Hera. Nexi down after the rumors from Il Sole 24 Ore according to which the company had given a mandate to Goldman and BofA for the sale of the “buy now pay later” Ratepay business and talks were underway with some counterparties. As for the difficulties of Moncler, among the worst stocks on Piazza Affari, investors fear – as for other big names in fashion – a slowdown in sales, considering the lackluster macro context in Europe and the United States and furthermore the performance of the Chinese economy lower than expected. Finecobank is also weak and has decided to go into reverse in its conquest of Great Britain, but the closure of its activities in the United Kingdom will be gradual (and without material impacts, it is estimated, on the bank’s numbers).
Trend of the BTP / Bund spread
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Spread rises to 180 points, yield jumps to 4.51%
Closing slightly higher for the spread between BTp and Bund. The yield differential between the benchmark ten-year BTp (Isin IT0005518128) and the German bond of the same duration ended trading up 2 points to 180 basis points from 178 points at Friday’s closing. More significant increase for the yield of the benchmark ten-year BTp which closed at 4.51% from 4.45% of the last reference.
For the BTP “loyalty premium” value of 0.5%
The final extra loyalty bonus relating to the second issue of the BTP value will be equal to 0.5% of the capital invested by small savers who will purchase it during the placement days, from Monday 2nd to Friday 6th October, and will keep it until the expiry of the 5 years. The Ministry of Economy announced this in a note. The BTP value, according to the Mef, ”is characterized in this issue by the novelty of the nominal coupons paid quarterly”. Individual and similar savers (retail), to whom this family of government bonds is aimed exclusively, will in fact receive a coupon every three months, calculated on the basis of a pre-established rate for the first 3 years, which increases for the following 2 years of life of the security (the so-called step-up mechanism).