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Original title: High plunge!Shuijingfangtrigger the alarm
From the limit to turning red, Shuijingfang (600779.SH) and its liquor sector continue to be “crazy” today.
On July 28th, Shuijingfang continued its plunge at the opening of the market. It once fell to a limit during the session. After the opening in the afternoon, it pulled up strongly, once rising by 6%. Afterwards, the closing momentum was weak, and finally closed up 3.05% to 119.81 yuan.
With its unique business model, liquor companies have surged in recent years. There is even a saying that “drunk when you get drunk” in A-shares. As long as the company has a liquor label, its stock price can rise sharply, and its momentum can be seen.
But some changes seem to be happening,Shunxin AgricultureThe stock price has been cut in half this year, and the stock price has fallen 57.17% year-to-date, becoming the first liquor stock to be cut in half.And the liquor faucetKweichow Moutai、WuliangyeIt has dropped by 30 to 40% from the high position before the Spring Festival. Now, with the news of Shuijingfang’s net loss of 42 million yuan in the second quarter, the entire liquor sector has collapsed. In the two trading days, Shuijingfang evaporated 13.3 billion in total, catching 65,800 investors off guard, and losing nearly 200,000 per capita.
The bad news continues. Is it possible that the five-year bull market in liquor stocks has come to an end?
Suddenly thunderous performance
On July 24, Shuijingfang disclosed the performance of the 2021 interim report, which is also the first interim report of the A-share liquor industry. Data show that in the first half of this year, Shuijingfang achieved a net profit of 377 million yuan, but it lost 42 million yuan in the second quarter.
The 2021 semi-annual report issued by Shuijingfang shows that the performance of the first half of the year is acceptable as a whole. Among them, operating income was 1.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128.4%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 380 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 266.0%. Regarding the substantial increase in overall revenue in the first half of the year, Shuijingfang said that it was mainly due to the increase in performance during the period and the relatively low revenue base due to the impact of the epidemic in the same period last year. But if you look specifically at it, combining the data from the first quarterly report will find that Shuijingfang suffered a loss of up to 42 million yuan at the beginning of the second quarter, and “increased revenue but not profit” in a single quarter.
Shuijingfang said that in the second half of the year, it will continue to build high-end brands and carry out product upgrades and innovations. In terms of marketing, it is planned that some of the company’s distributors will set up a high-end product sales company in Shuijingfang to sell Shuijingfang Collection and above products to fully mobilize the enthusiasm of dealers. This model of buying wine by distributors to promote terminal sales has become a channel deep bundling model for wine manufacturers in recent years.
In the financial report, Shuijingfang has increased its investment in high-end projects since the second quarter in order to promote the high-end strategy, and short-term profits are indeed affected to some extent to explain the sudden loss. The so-called “cost input” refers to the sales cost of Shuijingfang. In the first half of the year, it invested a lot in marketing, with sales expenses as high as 583 million yuan.With a solid marketing foundation, why did Shuijingfang’s sales in the second quarter fail to increase, and at the same time still suffered a huge loss of more than 40 million yuan. Isn’t it possible that the wine can’t be sold anymore?Shuijingfang did not give an answer to this.
Institutions may have stepped on mines
According to historical data, from 31.67 yuan per share at the beginning of 2019, Shuijingfang oscillated to a record high of 160.57 yuan in the previous period, with a cumulative increase of more than 4 times during the period. In terms of growth rate, Shuijingfang has risen by more than 67% in 2019, by more than 63% in 2020, and by more than 74% this year. It can be said that it has fully enjoyed the growth dividend of the liquor sector.
According to Baijiu analyst Cai Xuefei, the performance of Shuijingfang in the second quarter was worse than that in the first quarter. This may be due to the traditional off-season of liquor sales in the second and third quarters after the peak of the Spring Festival, and the high-end strategy of Shuijingfang was shelved due to the epidemic last year, and expenses occurred after the restart this year. The situation in front.
Affected by Shuijingfang’s lower limit, the liquor sector has also weakened sharply in recent days. Data on July 26 showed that the average drop of 18 stocks in the Shenwan liquor sector reached 7.34%. Leading Kweichow Moutai fell more than 5%, and Wuliangye fell nearly 8%. The general analysis believes that the embarrassment of Shuijingfang in the second quarter caused the liquor stocks to collapse.
It is worth noting that before this Shuijingfang performance thunder, the “E Funda Small and Medium Cap” fund managed by Zhang Kun, known as the first public offering brother, has greatly reduced its holdings of 11 million shares of Shuijingfang since the first quarter of this year. In the quarter, Shuijingfang was no longer in the top ten holdings of the fund. Judging from the trend in the past two days, it has to be said that his foresight allowed him to escape.
In fact, since the second quarter, major fund managers have clearly diverged in their opinions on Shuijingfang positions. Among them, China Universal’s two funds are newly ranked among the top ten shareholders of Shuijingfang, holding 2,765,900 shares and 1,300,000 shares respectively.PenghuaChina Securities Liquor IndexSecurities investment funds are also on the list of new shareholders, and for these newly-increased funds, they may have stepped on thunder in the midst of their performance plummet.
Uncovered the “figure leaf” of the industry?
As the first interim report of the liquor industry this year, Shuijingfang’s performance is considered to be an industry indicator. The sudden loss surprised investors. It is said that Shuijingfang’s embarrassment tore off the last “figure sheet” of liquor stocks.
In fact, the market has long been divided on the speculation of liquor stocks, and there is a view in the market that has long believed that the speculation of liquor stocks has seriously deviated from the fundamentals. However, as the bulls finally prevailed, despite doubts, liquor stocks have also surged in recent years. Moutai has risen to more than 2,000 yuan, and many liquor stocks have been valued by 100 times.
Although as of the close of the market on July 28, the liquor sector has rebounded, the plunge in the first two days is still lingering. One question is still in the minds of many investors-is the “super track” of liquor still worth investing in?
Guojin SecuritiesIt is believed that after the 2020 epidemic, liquor will usher in a new round of business cycle. In the two cycles of 2009-12 and 15-18, the structure of consumer groups and the trend of consumption upgrades in this cycle have not changed. However, the demand for sub-high-end price upgrades is stronger, the space is broader, and the speed may be faster. . In terms of investment recommendations, China International Finance Securities is optimistic about high-end and sub-high-end companies with price logic, prioritizing the deployment of valuation cost-effective + strong fundamentals (Mao Wuluyang), and paying attention to sub-high-end reform targets.
Bohai Securities pointed out that from monthly data, liquor is still running in the business cycle and the high-end liquor business cycle caused by price control may be prolonged. It is still recommended to pay attention to high-end liquor whose valuation tends to be reasonable, and to exchange space with time. The sub-high-end liquor that focuses on the accelerated expansion of the market.
Tianfeng SecuritiesIt is believed that in the second half of the year, sub-high-end liquor will still be used as the main recommendation line, and the sub-high-end segment will be effectively supported by performance elasticity. Under the high boom of the industry, the price ceiling will continue to rise, and the high-end process will enter a white-hot stage. The performance is high and it is expected to enter the logic stage of inspection and cashing during the Mid-Autumn National Day. It is recommended to pay close attention to the stocking before the Mid-Autumn National Day and the dynamic sales during the holiday.
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Editor in charge: Feng Tiwei
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