Home Business Hongye Futures: The weak pattern of steel supply and demand maintains the disk and waits for new drivers

Hongye Futures: The weak pattern of steel supply and demand maintains the disk and waits for new drivers

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【Thread & Hot Coil】

The weak supply and demand pattern is maintained, and the disk is waiting for new drivers

According to my steel network data, the billet in Qian’an area of ​​Tangshan is stable at 4250 yuan/ton, and the billet in Lulong area of ​​Qinhuangdao is stable at 4250 yuan/ton. The production of rebar continued to decrease month-on-month, and the proportion of corporate steel mills’ losses rose, covering an area covering the whole country. The spot cost of the main varieties of rebar has dropped from a high of around RMB 5,200/ton to an average level of around RMB 4,700/ton.There is also news in the market recently thatBankWill be rightreal estateThere is a relaxation of capital loans, which is alleviated to a certain extentreal estateCurrent funding difficulties. On the whole, it is difficult to effectively change the weak supply and demand pattern, and the cautious attitude of merchants has not been repaired. At present, most merchants are operating more to maintain active inventory reduction.

【Iron Ore】

The supply and demand pattern is loose, and the disk range fluctuates

In terms of spot, the spot price of imported iron ore ports rose 5-17 throughout the day yesterday.Qingdao PortPB powder 576 rises by 10, super special powder 380 rises by 10; Caofeidian PB powder 572 rises by 5, super special powder 372 rises by 10;Tianjin harborPB powder 620 rose 11, Newman block 745 rose 10; Jiangnei Port PB powder 664 rose 17, and mixed powder 448 rose 5. On the supply side, last week, the shipments of Australia and Pakistan dropped from a month-on-month basis, and the number of arrivals to Hong Kong also decreased, and the overall supply remained volatile. On the demand side, MysteelResearchThe blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel plants was 70.34%, a decrease of 1.24% from last week; the average daily molten iron output was 2.019 million tons, which was a decrease of 10,200 tons. The output has declined in all parts of North China. In terms of inventory, Mysteel’s 45 ports nationwide imported iron ore inventory of 151.0619 million tons, an increase of 1.0049 million tons from the previous month; the average daily port volume was 2.897 million tons, an increase of 179,000 tons; the number of ships in port dropped by 167 ships. In the early stage, the ports affected by the weather, which were restricted by the port dredging, have returned to normal. The amount of dredging in the region has rebounded significantly, the overlapped weekly arrivals have dropped, and the accumulation of port inventory has narrowed compared with last week. On the board, affected by the overall mood,Main forceThe 01 contract continued to rebound in the night trading, and it will still be at the bottom in the short term.

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【Coking Coal & Coke】

Spot pessimism dominates futures market volatility

The recent policy is relatively loose, coal production has been at high levels, but the downstream market demand has weakened, sales pressure on some coal mines has become prominent, and the inventory of some coal types in the factory has accumulated.Shanxi Coking CoalBig Mine 2022 Long-term AssociationcontractAccording to the long-term agreement price signing in the fourth quarter of 2021, some downstream companies show signs of passive reduction in the long-term agreement volume, passive increase in costs, and a slight slowdown in the later stage of coal price adjustment. Considering the recent coal price reduction, market transactions are still not as expected, and the coking coal market is pessimistic The sentiment has increased, and some coal mines are still expected to lower their quotations. Downstream coking and steel companies have limited production to varying degrees, and their demand for raw coal has weakened, and some have temporarily suspended their purchases. However, after the coal price has been lowered, some coking and steel companies have begun to purchase small orders.

Some steel plants started the sixth round of raising coke by 200 yuan/ton. The profits of coke companies have been damaged, and the shipment situation is not good. Recently, coke companies have actively restricted production and the scope of production restrictions has expanded. The main focus is on active shipments and inventory reduction, and coke supply is showing a loose situation. Steel mills often control the arrival of coke, and coke prices are expected to be bearish, coke enterprises are under greater inventory pressure, and coke supply is relatively loose.

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(Article Source:Hongye Futures

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