Original title: The three departments collectively interviewed polysilicon backbone enterprises, how far is the skyrocketing silicon material from price reduction
The price of photovoltaic polysilicon, which has hit a ten-year high, has attracted the attention of relevant authorities. The website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released news on the afternoon of October 9. According to the relevant requirements of the “Notice on Promoting the Coordinated Development of the Photovoltaic Industry Chain and Supply Chain” jointly issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the State Administration for Market Regulation and the National Energy Administration (hereinafter referred to as the three departments), in order to further guide the photovoltaic industry For the coordinated development of upstream and downstream, the relevant business departments of the three departments have recently conducted collective interviews with some key polysilicon enterprises and industry institutions on the basis of organizing the cooperation and docking of the photovoltaic industry chain and supply chain, and guided relevant units to strengthen self-discipline and self-examination and standardized management.
According to the news, the heads of the relevant departments of the three departments said that the price of products in some parts of the domestic photovoltaic industry has continued to rise sharply recently, causing severe shocks in the industrial chain and supply chain, including the complex international trade environment, repeated impact of the new crown epidemic, and substantial growth in downstream demand. , the difference in the construction cycle of each link, etc., there are also factors such as some companies hyping up prices, individual practitioners hoarding and other factors.
A person familiar with the industry revealed to The Paper that the top polysilicon companies in the interview are all listed. “The price of polysilicon may drop to a certain extent in the future.” Another industry source said that among the top five domestic polysilicon production capacity companies At least three were involved in the interview.
High-purity polysilicon is the core basic raw material of the photovoltaic industry chain. Since the second half of 2020, due to factors such as the continued strong market demand and insufficient supply flexibility of the industrial chain, the price of PV upstream polysilicon has risen sharply from a minimum of less than 60,000 yuan per ton. After a brief retreat at the end of 2021, it will resume its upward trend in 2022, and it has exceeded 300,000 yuan/ton so far.
The price increase has been transmitted from polysilicon to downstream silicon wafers, cells, and components. The high price of the supply chain reflects the imbalance between supply and demand to a certain extent, but it also has an impact on the healthy development of the industry, and the investment in large-scale photovoltaic power plants in the terminal has therefore stagnated. Due to the continuous escalation of the price game in the industry chain, some photovoltaic companies once greatly reduced the operating rate, reduced production or even stopped production, and some orders began to default or breach the contract.
Who is behind the surge in polysilicon? In the past two years, the industry has been full of accusations of various kinds. One of the typical ones is to point the finger at the silicon material link, condemning the silicon material enterprises to raise prices on the ground, ignoring the pressure of photovoltaic parity to connect to the Internet and the healthy development of the industry. “Although it was difficult for silicon materials last year, we can’t take the opportunity to keep rising.” A person from a component manufacturer once complained to The Paper. From the perspective of midstream and downstream manufacturing, this view is not uncommon, even very popular.
Silicon material manufacturers also have “difficulties”. They believe that silicon material is a chemical industry with risks and safety issues. The investment density, technological content and threshold are the highest in the industry chain, and the investment return period is also very long. “Polysilicon has experienced several ups and downs in the past ten years. The crazier the rise, the crazier the fall. In May-June 2020, all silicon companies were losing money, and the current price fluctuation is also a market behavior. After more than ten years of development, the investment and operation behavior is still irrational. The rise in the price of silicon materials is pushed up by the downstream, and the silicon materials companies should not take the blame.”
This kind of “mutual confrontation” and controversy prompted the competent authorities to intervene in 2021.
At the symposium on hot and difficult issues in the photovoltaic industry held in June 2021, relevant leaders from the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the New Energy Department of the National Energy Administration attended the meeting. At the meeting, leaders and experts from nearly 20 upstream and downstream companies in the industrial chain, including China State Power Investment Corporation, Three Gorges New Energy, Jinko, Tianhe, Aixu, LONGi, Zhonghuan, JA Solar, Tongwei, Asia Silicon, and Jinneng, discussed raw materials. , logistics, exchange rate and other costs of rising impact and reasons were analyzed, and the current situation of production and operation of the company and the business development plan for the second half of the year were introduced. According to The Paper, this symposium was initiated by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration, not an industry association. The industry association calls on all members and photovoltaic enterprises to abide by laws and regulations, operate rationally, respect the spirit of contracts, and consciously resist excessive stockpiling of polysilicon and silicon wafer products, price hikes, and speculative behaviors that are not based on their own production and business needs.
But the rise of silicon material has not been blocked.
In the final analysis, is the silicon material at the raw material end sufficient? A professional who is familiar with the polysilicon industry said that the overall supply of silicon material is sufficient this year, especially in the fourth quarter, when the supply increase is large, and the price is expected to be lowered by then.
The supply and demand of silicon materials are generally balanced, but there is a serious mismatch between the production capacity of silicon wafers and the production capacity of silicon materials. The rising price of silicon materials is largely related to its market-oriented transaction structure. According to The Paper, under the global trend of carbon neutrality, the large-scale expansion of the domestic photovoltaic industry chain, especially the silicon wafer side, has caused enterprises to worry about the supply of silicon materials, and they have signed long orders. Under the circumstance of limited surplus, the supply that can be supplied to the retail market has been insufficient, and the price of silicon material in sporadic transactions in the market has soared, driving the price of silicon material to rise month by month. In other words, to a large extent, the price increase of silicon materials is “grabbed” by downstream materials.
In the context of the continuous expansion of the global photovoltaic market, the stable supply of the industrial chain and the stable price of raw materials are the common expectations of the entire industry. In August this year, the three departments of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the State Administration for Market Regulation, and the National Energy Administration jointly issued a document requesting to strengthen cross-departmental joint law enforcement and severely crack down on illegal activities such as price gouging, monopoly, and production and sale of fake and shoddy products in the photovoltaic industry. At the same time, encourage the deepening of whole-chain cooperation, and guide upstream and downstream to clarify volume and price, ensure supply, and stabilize expectations.
According to the aforementioned news from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on October 9, when the three departments collectively interviewed some photovoltaic enterprises and industry organizations, they said that the current development achievements of the photovoltaic industry were hard-won. It is necessary to focus on the overall situation and long-term interests, adhere to win-win cooperation between upstream and downstream, and promote the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry; the second is to effectively strengthen corporate self-discipline, conduct in-depth self-examination and self-correction, consciously regulate sales behavior, and do not engage in hoarding, hype, etc. price behavior; the third is to coordinate and promote the construction of existing photovoltaic projects, reasonably release the built capacity, moderately speed up the pace of construction of compliance projects under construction, and at the same time, the subsequent large-scale production of new capacity should be judged in advance to prevent risks.
In the next step, relevant departments will further strengthen work coordination, strengthen supervision and management, and strengthen investigation and crackdown on illegal activities such as price gouging, monopoly production and sale of counterfeit and shoddy products in the industry.
The high silicon material also “burned” the quotation agency. The Silicon Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association announced on September 8 that it would suspend the regular release of polysilicon collection prices every Wednesday for 8 years. According to the Silicon Industry Branch, recently, affected by multiple factors, the prices of some supply chains have continued to fluctuate and rise, impacting the stable operation of the crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry. “In order to avoid excessive interpretation and misunderstanding of the polysilicon price collected and released by Antaike (Note: an enterprise under the association), it has been decided to suspend the release of the collection price from this week.”
With the release of new production capacity in the polysilicon sector, at the end of September, the price of silicon material, which has caused the entire photovoltaic industry to suffer, stabilized. Has the price of silicon material hit the ceiling? When to enter the price reduction channel?
“It should be able to come down at the end of the fourth quarter. In fact, it mainly depends on the downstream leading companies, which continue to increase the amount of code and lock, and there is only the expectation of price increases under the rush.” A senior photovoltaic industry insider called The Paper in an interview that the price of polysilicon should return. Rational, it is urgent for downstream enterprises to be rational first.
In the face of continued strong demand, leading companies in all aspects of the photovoltaic industry chain have announced production expansion since last year, and the super boom cycle of silicon materials has also attracted a large number of new players to cross-border influx. In this regard, since the beginning of this year, many people in the industry have called for the more rational and vigilant planning and development when the industry is developing hotter.
Lin Ruhai, executive vice president of the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said at the polysilicon industry development forum held in August that the shortage of polysilicon is temporary. In the long run, the supply side can meet future long-term demand. “In the long run, the existing expansion plan can meet the long-term demand for photovoltaic installations. From the annual production capacity of 520,000 tons at the end of 2021 to the demand of 1.93 million tons in 2025, there must be an increase of 1.4 million tons/year of production capacity to achieve new construction or expansion. , the industry has incremental prospects, but at the same time, it is necessary to consider that the production capacity of the over-investment plan before 2025 may cause an imbalance between market supply and demand.”
“It is impossible to maintain high-priced polysilicon for a long time, because we have enough production capacity under construction, and the new construction capacity is expected to be released significantly from the end of this year to the first half of next year.” The 5th China International Photovoltaic Conference held on August 26 At the industry summit forum, Yang Deren, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, director of the Institute of Semiconductor Materials of Zhejiang University, and director of the State Key Laboratory of Silicon Materials, also expressed similar views. (Reporter Yang Yang)