(Original title: Huang Hai, the champion fund manager, adjusts positions and exposes: Ten major bets on the same track, Zhang Yuan and Tong Ge turned around and embraced consumption)
On the last working day before the Spring Festival, the Four Seasons Report of Funds ushered in the release peak.
On January 20, the four seasons report of the fund managed by Huang Hai, the 2022 public offering fund champion. According to the quarterly report, Huang Hai sold real estate, banks and consumption, and the top ten major positions were all-in on coal, oil and gas and other upstream energy stocks.
It is worth noting that on January 19, the day before last year, the general stock fund Yingda State-owned Enterprise Reform Theme also released the Four Seasons Report. Fund managers Zhang Yuan and Tong Ge did the opposite, and the heavy holdings turned around. Coal stocks have disappeared, and almost all of the top ten major positions have been adjusted to large consumer sectors.
Confident in the Yellow Sea, the top ten heavyweight stocks are all-in on energy
Last year, Huanghai became the focus of the market. With its precise grasp of coal and other energy stocks, its Wanjia macro-time selection and multi-strategy managed by Wanjia Xinli ranked first among active equity funds with a return rate of 48.56% and 43.66%. second place. In addition, the return rate of Wanjia Selected under his management was 35.51%, ranking first among hybrid funds.
However, in the fourth quarter, the above-mentioned three funds managed by Huang Hai all experienced withdrawals to varying degrees. According to Wind data, the return rates of Wanjia macro timing multi-strategy, Wanjia Xinli and Wanjia selection in the fourth quarter were -11.01%, -10.49% and -10.98% respectively.
Huang Hai said in the Four Seasons News that with the simultaneous launch of real estate policies and the optimization of anti-epidemic policies, market risk appetite has increased significantly, and the two major factors restricting the market have been eased. The A-share market has returned to 3,200 points. The Shenzhen 300 Index rose steadily.
In this context, Huang Hai’s operation,Significantly reduced its holdings of real estate stocks that were expected to be fulfilled by the policy, and traded consumer stocks and bank stocks at the same time, and further increased its holdings of coal, oil and gas and other resource stocks at bargain prices.
Huang Hai’s preference for energy stocks is more intuitive in the fourth quarter’s position changes. Take Wanjia’s macro timing and multiple strategies as an example. As of the end of the fourth quarter, its top ten heavyweights, Sino-Singapore Jinshan Coal International, Guanghui Energy, Lanhua Kechuang and Pingding Coal Co., Ltd., four coal chemical stocks, held positions in the third quarter. Gemdale Group, Yingjia Gongjiu and other real estate and consumer stocks were eliminated. The adjustment of positions in the fourth quarter shows that Huanghai’s concentration on upstream energy stocks in the portfolio has increased again.
This position has achieved negative returns in the fourth quarter, and has also underperformed the CSI 300 since 2023. As of January 19, Wanjia’s macro timing multi-strategy has yielded 5.76% this year, while the CSI 300 has a yield of 7.35% over the same period. %.
Regarding the layout for 2023, Huang Hai believes that China’s macro economy will enter a process of weak recovery, and A-shares show a trend of “strong expectations, weak reality”, and the current valuation still needs to be oscillated and consolidated. As the cumulative effect of the policy of stabilizing growth gradually emerges, the second half of the year may usher in a market for both performance and valuation.
He judged that in the current period of steady growth, upstream energy stocks, with their characteristics of high dividends, high certainty, low valuation, and low debt, are still scarce assets with both offensive and defensive capabilities, and continue to be heavily held. In addition, it will also actively look for investment opportunities in undervalued midstream industries related to economic recovery.
Equity fund champion has turned to consumption
Last year, Yingda State-owned Enterprise Reform Theme, managed by Zhang Yuan and Tong Ge, took the top spot among ordinary stock funds with a return rate of 31.5%.
Although investors did not pay much attention to the two fund managers before, the performance of the Yingda State-owned Enterprise Reform Theme Fund in different historical stages is remarkable. The fund has increased by 109.3%, 57.71% and 43.31% in the past three years, two years and one year respectively, and short-term indicators such as the past six months and three months are also ranked high.
With its impressive performance, the fund continued to be sought after by investors in the fourth quarter, with a growth rate of 171.85%. The management scale at the end of last year was 420 million yuan.
From the point of view of fund managers’ adjustment of positions, energy stocks that contributed to their performance last year have all withdrawn from the top ten major positions in the reform theme of state-owned enterprises in the UK, such as Shaanxi Coal Industry, Lu’an Environmental Energy, Guanghui Energy and China Shenhua. In addition, the data company Venusstar Also quit the top ten stocks.
Instead, Zhou Dasheng, Stone Technology, BOE A, Sanlipu, and Linglong Tire were newly promoted to the top ten heavyweight stocks. In addition, consumer stocks such as Tianrun Dairy, Shanghai Jahwa, Yilite, Kweichow Moutai, and Dong’e Ejiao have increased their positions significantly, with increases of 249.81%, 193.18%, 190.47%, 185.96%, and 120.92%.
The fund manager made a detailed analysis of the reasons for the adjustment in the Four Seasons Report. In the fourth quarter, A shares showed two stages of bottoming out and then stabilizing and rebounding at the bottom. In the high interest rate environment, including new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and energy storage. Dao’s valuation has been suppressed to a certain extent. A high valuation corresponds to the high growth rate expectation of industry profits. Once the demand side or supply side structure is adjusted, there will be a correction. At the same time, undervalued stocks performed better, and the corresponding sectors were concentrated in industries such as large consumption, medicine, and real estate and banking that were more severely affected by the epidemic in the early stage.
Under the background of the theme of state-owned enterprise reform, Zhang Yuan and Tong Ge focused on the following four investment opportunities:
First, industries that benefit from the improvement of the epidemic and economic recovery in the short term, including catering services, food and beverages, and new consumption in the country, will be restored.
Second, the decline in the price of upstream energy materials has continued to weaken the suppression of the midstream manufacturing industry. At the same time, the resumption of work and production and the increase in downstream demand have brought about improvements in the profitability of some traditional manufacturing industries.
The third is that in the current round of energy revolution, upstream varieties that still show long-term valuation advantages.
Fourth, we are optimistic about the outstanding performance of some high-end manufacturing industries in their own industries for a long time.
The two fund managers were also satisfied with their performance in the fourth quarter. The quarterly report pointed out that the investment strategy in the fourth quarter has adapted well to the style changes of the market and maintained a steady upward return in the structured market.