Oil Prices Dip as China’s Crude Imports Fall, Lack of Buying News
On December 8th, Huatai Futures reported that China’s crude oil imports have fallen, leading to a lack of buying news and important data in the short-term oil market.
According to the report, WTI January crude oil futures closed down $0.04, or 0.06%, at $69.34/barrel, while Brent February crude oil futures closed down $0.25, or 0.33%, at $74.05/barrel. Additionally, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures 2401 contract night closed up 3.23% at 556.60 yuan/barrel.
In other oil-related news, the Kremlin announced that Russia and Saudi Arabia have agreed to strengthen cooperation in the oil and gas field, including cooperation in equipment supply. Iraqi Oil Minister also stated that they will continue to support the OPEC+ agreement and commit to voluntary production cuts.
Energy assessment agency Argus reported that the price of Russian Urals crude oil fell below $60 for the first time since July. Meanwhile, the General Administration of Customs in China revealed that the country imported 42.445 million tons of crude oil in November, down from 48.969 million tons in October.
The investment logic behind the recent decline in oil prices is attributed to the lack of buying in both the spot and futures market. However, the decline in prices itself is expected to create demand, especially for Chinese refineries. The report also mentioned the current discount not being enough to cover the arbitrage of oil storage in shore tanks and floating warehouses, thus not providing enough support for a rebound in oil prices.
In terms of strategy, the report suggests that OPEC’s production cuts, along with a potential recovery in China’s buying interest, should be closely monitored. Additionally, potential downside risks include easing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, early return of Iranian oil to the market, and macro tail risks. On the other hand, upside risks include the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and the escalation of European and American sanctions on Russia and Iran.
The article concludes by mentioning that the information was forwarded by a website focusing on futures account opening, trading, and professional market analysis.