Zhitong Finance APP learned that on January 30, seven listed airlines released their performance forecasts for 2022. SH), China Eastern Airlines (600115.SH), Air China (601111.SH), and Juneyao Airlines (603885.SH) are all expected to lose money, and the total estimated loss may exceed 130 billion yuan. Among them, the three major airlines of Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines had a combined net loss of 103.3 billion yuan to 111.7 billion yuan last year.
Three main reasons for performance pressure: the impact of the epidemic, high oil prices, and exchange rate depreciation
HNA pointed out that in addition to the impact of the epidemic, the price of jet fuel in 2022 will be at a historically high level, and as the largest item in the operating costs of airlines,The high oil price led to a substantial increase in the company’s production costs.At the same time, due to the settlement of part of the company’s lease debts and loans in foreign currencies,The fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate in 2022 will lead to a large exchange loss for the company.
China Express stated that during the reporting period,The spread of the epidemic has led to repeated outbreaks in most parts of my countrysuperimposed on the impact of normalized epidemic control policies,Civil aviation passenger travel demand drops sharply; At the same time, the company adopted strict epidemic prevention and control policies and safe operation management, which had a certain impact on the company’s capacity deployment. also,In 2022, the sharp rise in jet fuel prices will lead to an increase in the company’s jet fuel costs, and the fluctuation of the US dollar exchange rate will lead to an increase in exchange losses.
China Southern Airlines stated that during the reporting period, the domestic civil aviation industryAffected by multiple shocks such as repeated epidemics, high oil prices, and depreciation of the renminbi, the industry situation is severe and complicated.In 2022, the company’s transport capacity input (available seat kilometers) and revenue passenger kilometers will decrease by approximately 28.1% and 33.0% year-on-year, respectively, and decrease by approximately 55.3% and 64.2% compared with 2019, respectively.
China Eastern Airlines stated that in 2022,Affected by the continuous impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the civil aviation industry has fallen into a continuous downturn, the total turnover of civil aviation transportation was 59.93 billion ton-kilometers, which was 46.3% of the same period in 2019, and the passenger traffic volume was 250 million person-times, which was 38.1% of the same period in 2019. Headquartered in Shanghai, the company has experienced severe challenges from the impact of the epidemic. At the same time,The high international oil price and the depreciation of RMB against the US dollar also further aggravated the company’s cost pressure.
Air China stated that in 2022, due to the continuous impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, passenger travel demand will be at a low level. The markets of the company’s main bases have been repeatedly impacted by the epidemic, especially in the Beijing market, where the capacity investment and total turnover have dropped to the lowest level since the epidemic. Simultaneously,Due to multiple unfavorable factors such as high oil prices and exchange rate fluctuations, it is more difficult for the company to improve its operations, and investment companies related to its main business have also been seriously affected.
The recovery of the aviation industry after the epidemic has begun, and the strategic layout is at the right time
According to Spring Airlines in December 2022, the “New Ten Articles” epidemic prevention policy and the overall plan for “Class B and B Management” have been released successively.It marks the inflection point of recovery for China’s civil aviation industry.As the epidemic situation in various places gradually passes the peak, the backlog of domestic demand has been better released. Since January, the passenger traffic and flight volume of civil aviation have increased significantly.
On January 6, the Civil Aviation Administration stated at the 2023 National Civil Aviation Work Conference that in 2023, it will strive to restore the overall level to about 75% before the epidemic, and strive to achieve a balance of profit and loss.
The State Council’s joint defense and joint control mechanism for the Spring Festival travel work team recently disclosed that during the 2023 Spring Festival holiday (January 21-27), civil aviation will send a total of about 9.006 million passengers. In the first half of this year’s Spring Festival travel (January 7-26), civil aviation transported a total of 24.643 million passengers, an increase of 48.0% compared with the same period in the lunar calendar in 2022. According to the forecast of the Civil Aviation Administration, during the Spring Festival travel season in 2023, civil aviation is expected to transport 73 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 12%, the highest growth rate in the past five years.
Guotai Junan pointed out that as of the seventh day of the first month, the air passenger flow during the spring festival has recovered by nearly 70% compared with 2019, which is basically in line with expectations. The post-epidemic recovery of the aviation industry has begun. When the travel psychological construction is completed, not only will it be a profitable year, but it is also expected to usher in an aviation super cycle based on airspace time bottlenecks. The certainty of the rise of the profit center after the epidemic, as well as the persistence of the high prosperity, will exceed market expectations. The short-term game risks are released, and the strategic layout is at the right time.
Haitong Securities pointed out that with the optimization of policies, the bottom of the big cycle starts, and attention should be paid to investment opportunities in the big cycle of aviation. With the adjustment of domestic epidemic prevention and control policies and the release of “Several Measures for the Resumption of International Passenger Flights” issued by the Civil Aviation Administration, the domestic and international markets continue to pick up. Haitong Securities believes that the recovery trend of the industry is established, and the bottom of the big cycle is set sail: on the one hand, as the peak of new coronavirus infections in various places passes, domestic demand is expected to rebound sharply; on the other hand, with the optimization of international entry and exit policies, international transportation capacity is expected to continue growth, the demand is expected to be further released. Haitong Securities believes that the impact of the epidemic on the industry may gradually weaken. It is optimistic that the long-term investment logic of the aviation industry will remain unchanged after the epidemic (that is, the supply and demand pattern will improve and the fare will be marketized). It is recommended to pay attention to the large-cycle investment opportunities in the aviation sector.