In May, inflation starts to fall again, after the rise recorded in April, returning to the level of March 2023 (+7.6%). The slowdown certified by Istat still appears to be strongly influenced by the dynamics of the prices of energy goods. In the food sector, the prices of processed products show a slowdown in their growth on an annual basis, which contributes to the deceleration of core inflation (which fell to +6%).
Lastly, the phase of slowdown in the trend growth of shopping cart prices continues, which was +11.2% in May. The Istat communicates it.
The deceleration of the inflation rate is due to the slowdown on a trend basis in the prices of non-regulated energy goods (from +26.6% to +20.3%) and those of processed food (from +14% to +13%, 2%), of Other goods (+5.3% to +5%), of Services relating to transport (from +6% to +5.6%) and of Recreational, cultural and personal care services ( from +6.9% to +6.7%).
Effects only partially offset by the upward tensions in the prices of unprocessed food (from +8.4% to +8.8%) and those of services relating to housing (from +3.2% to +3.5 %). Core inflation, excluding energy and fresh food, recorded a slight slowdown from +6.2% to +6%, as did that excluding energy, which fell from +6.3% to +6 ,2%. The growth on an annual basis of the prices of goods slows down (from +10.3% to +9.3%) and to a lesser extent that of services (from +4.8% to +4.6%). The prices of food, home and personal care goods slow down in trend terms (from +11.6% to +11.2%), as do those of frequently purchased products (from +7.9 % to +7.1%).
The cyclical increase in the general index is mainly due to the prices of unprocessed food (+1.5%), recreational, cultural and personal care services (+1%), processed food (+0.6 %) and services relating to housing (+0.4%), which are opposed by the drop in the prices of unregulated (-1.6%) and regulated (-0.2%) Energy. The harmonized index of consumer prices increased by 0.3% on a monthly basis and by 8% on an annual basis (from +8.6% in April); the preliminary estimate was +8.1%.