Indonesia decides to extend its edible oil export ban, domestic palm oil trend calms international

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Indonesia’s planned export ban on edible oil raw materials will coverpalmPalm oil products such as oil, refined palm oil and second-hand edible oil. This statement is in stark contrast to the minister’s statement the day before that the new export ban covers crude palm oil. But then said the export ban would be lifted once the domestic palm oil price in Indonesia reached the expected 14,000 rupiah per liter.

Despite high prices and strong demand for canola, farmers are leaning toward alternative grain crops, Statistics Canada said in a report on Monday, with canola acreage in Canada expected to drop 7% this year to 20.9 million acres. Canada, the world’s largest exporter of canola oil, has run out of stocks after last season’s production fell to its lowest level since 2007 because of last year’s drought.

On April 27, according to data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Crushers Association (SPPOMA), from April 1 to 25, the unit yield of Malaysian palm oil increased by 5.51%, the oil yield increased by 0.01%, and the output increased by 5.56%.

Recently, NATO countries led by the United States have provided Ukraine with a large number of heavy advanced weapons and equipment. In this context, the Russian army began to adopt new tactics, using precision-guided weapons to destroy several strategically important Ukrainian railway hubs west of Kyiv, in order to prevent weapons from Western countries from being shipped to the Donbas region. Russian experts said that if necessary in the future, the Russian army will consider destroying the Ukrainian railway bridge to prevent the Ukrainian army in the Donbas region from obtaining Western military aid weapons.

Institutional view

Everbright Futures:

On Wednesday, BMD palm oil rose by the daily limit, and CBOT soybean oil hit a new high. Indonesia’s Chief Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto said at a briefing on palm oil export policy that Indonesia has decided to expand its ban on edible oil exports and will stop CPO (crude palm oil), RPO (refined palm oil), RBD (refined bleached and deodorized palm oil) ) exports to ensure domestic supply. Only the export of refined soft palm oil (RBD palm olein) was previously banned. The ban will go into effect on April 28. Domestically, palm oil led overnight gains, followed by other oils. The domestic trend is calmer than the international one, which has a lot to do with the long holiday approaching and the withdrawal of funds. At present, the Indonesian policy is the largest influencing factor in the current market, with high uncertainty and rapid changes. In terms of operation, it is recommended to buy more wet warehouses or wet warehouses.

Merya Futures:

Indonesia’s export ban came into effect on the 28th, and the scope of the ban was expanded. On the 27th, the oil and fat market was in waves again. In foreign countries, U.S. soybean planting has not yet been carried out on a large scale, and the market is in a news vacuum period. However, driven by the surge in oil, U.S. soybeans are again approaching the upper edge of the 1650-1700 shock range. Indonesia’s export ban came into effect on the 28th. Before that, India increased its procurement efforts. However, Indonesia expanded the scope of the ban, and the market was boosted by news such as Indonesia’s cancellation or repurchase of contracts in recent months. US soybean oil hit a new high, and Malaysian palm oil rose sharply. The domestic soybean oil supply improved, and the inventory increased slightly; the palm oil transaction volume was heavy, and the inventory fluctuated around 350,000 tons. On the whole, as the macro sentiment eases, oils and fats return to fundamentals, Indonesia’s export policy continues to ferment, and internal and external oils and fats have been boosted again. Operationally, it is recommended to pull back short and participate more, and be cautious about chasing up and down.

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