On Wednesday (October 20), Shanghai crude oil prices fell. The main contract 2112 ended at 524.4 yuan/barrel, down 8.7 yuan/barrel, or 1.63%. API data showed that crude oil inventories increased by 3.294 million barrels, and daily commodity prices were common. Decline, which also dragged down oil prices.
The National Development and Reform Commission held a special symposium on Tuesday afternoon to study the implementation of intervention measures on coal prices in accordance with the law, promote the return of coal prices to a reasonable range, promote the return of the coal market to rationality, and ensure a safe and stable supply of energy.
The price of coal and other commodities fell at the beginning of the trading day, which in turn caused oil prices to turn from rising to falling.
Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA, said: “As coal and natural gas prices slow down and the relative strength index (RSI) technical indicators are still in overbought areas, the possibility of a substantial and substantial drop in oil prices is rising. “
List of futures contracts and transactions
Trading summary and trading strategy
Shanghai crude oil prices fell, and the main contract 2112 ended at 524.4 yuan/barrel, down 8.7 yuan/barrel, or 1.63%.
(INE crude oil daily chart)
Transaction logic: Oil prices are still hovering around a seven-year high. In the absence of an improvement in the relationship between supply and demand, they may set new highs at any time. Technical oil prices are still rising unilaterally, indicating that oil price bulls are still quite strong, but we need to be wary of the risk of MACD forming a deadlock. At present, oil prices do not have any signs of peaking, and the bulls should still have a certain upside. Investors are advised to continue to do more on dips.
Resistance levels: INE crude oil 535.3, US oil 83.18
Support levels: INE crude oil 521.4, US oil 81.01
China and overseas news
The UK is currently one of the countries with the highest rate of COVID-19 infection in the world. Experts point out the reasons behind it
①Experts said that the number of new coronary pneumonia cases in the United Kingdom has risen sharply for many reasons-never wearing masks seriously (even if you need to wear masks on public transport, this rule is rarely enforced), to large indoor areas that cause the spread of the virus assembly;
②The United Kingdom is hesitant to vaccinate young people, while other European countries and the United States have done so earlier; in addition, the start of school in September has also led to a rapid increase in infection cases.
U.S. nursing staff shortage, more than 400,000 employees have been lost during the epidemic
According to data released by the American Association of Retired Persons last week, in the four weeks ending September 19, the number of deaths from new coronary pneumonia in nursing homes in the United States has exceeded 2,000, twice the number of the previous cycle. At a time when the epidemic situation in nursing homes is still serious, there has always been a shortage of nursing staff in nursing homes. According to data from the US Department of Labor, during the epidemic, nursing institutions such as nursing homes in the United States have lost more than 425,000 employees. A recent joint survey by the American Health Care Association showed that 86% of nursing homes across the United States experienced a rapid deterioration in staff shortages in recent months; the American Association of Retired Persons pointed out that the shortage of medical staff in nursing homes in the United States has reached the peak of the last winter epidemic. The level of the period. The analysis pointed out that the shortage of nursing staff prevented the elderly from accessing corresponding health services, further highlighting the vulnerability of the elderly population in the United States in the epidemic. (CCTV News)
Approximately 15 million tons of coal are stranded in the Russian Far East
Russian Business Daily Vedomosti quoted Russian Deputy Prime Minister Trutnev as saying that about 15 million tons of coal were stranded in the Russian Far East due to the bottleneck of the Russian railway. There is a gap, and investors suffer losses.Port shipments are not fully utilized, Russia should increase rail traffic
The President of Indonesia said it plans to “step on the brakes” on all bulk commodity raw materials exports
Indonesian President Joko Widodo said on Tuesday that the country is planning to “step on the brakes” on all bulk commodity raw materials exports in order to attract investment in the processing of local resources and create jobs. Indonesia has banned the export of a variety of unprocessed ores such as nickel, tin and copper to encourage downstream industries, including the production of electric vehicle batteries and aluminum processing. “We really want to put the brakes on the export of raw materials because there is no added value and no jobs can be created,” he said, adding that the policy will affect “all commodities.”Indonesia is the world‘s largest exporter of palm oil, thermal coal and tin
Russia considers using natural gas-related products for cryptocurrency mining
According to the Russian “Kommersant”, the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank are discussing a project of Rosneft to use petroleum gas-related products to mine cryptocurrencies in its oil fields. A letter from the Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade of Russia on September 7 asked other Russian ministries and the central bank for their opinions.An anonymous official said that a major Russian oil company wants to expand its cryptocurrency mining project, but the crypto industry is in a legal gray area, and the company is worried that the central bank will give a negative response
Fuel demand soar
With the full-scale launch of the US stock reporting season, the performance of coal mining companies has aroused market attention. The U.S. Energy Information Administration recently stated that coal-fired power generation in the United States this year is expected to increase by 22% year-on-year, the first annual increase in the past seven years. The main reason is that the price of natural gas has risen sharply, while the price of coal is relatively stable, leading to a large increase in the demand for coal for power generation. Following this, coal miners in the U.S. stock market ushered in a period of profit explosion. For example, Peabody Energy, the largest coal miner in the United States, said that its coal sales in the third quarter may exceed US$900 million, which is the most recent 7 quarters. The highest level. Analysts predict that the third-quarter results of most US coal mining companies may be relatively optimistic. (CCTV Finance)
Institutional perspective
Everbright Futures: Oil prices continue to run strongly
Compared with the market trend of domestic coal-related varieties, oil prices are generally strong. In terms of data, API data shows that as of the week of October 15, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.506 million barrels, refined oil decreased by 2.974 million barrels, crude oil inventories increased by 3.294 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 2.523 million barrels. The overall inventory is still manifested as the accumulation of crude oil and the destocking of refined oil, which means that market demand is still relatively resilient. Judging from the verification of price data, the diesel price of the domestic Shandong refinery stood at an integer mark of 8,000 yuan/ton, and the processing volume in China in September fell 2.6% from the same period last year to 56.07 million tons, or about 13.64 million barrels/day. . The processing volume in September was also lower than the 13.74 million barrels per day in August, which was the lowest in 15 months. The processing volume in the first nine months of this year was 526.87 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. On the one hand, production and power restrictions have brought about a mismatch in product supply, and the current cracking profits in the Asian market are also supported. In addition, the current supply side of the global crude oil market has failed to make effective additions, and the overall oil price will continue to be strong under the deduction of the structural contradiction between supply and demand. In addition, we need to pay attention to the systemic risks brought about by the negative impact of domestic energy policy changes on the prices of coal and related commodities.
Huatai Futures: The gap between refined oil products rose, and the profit of Asia-Pacific refineries improved significantly
In the process of this round of oil price rebound, refined oil prices have outperformed crude oil, and refinery profits have been significantly restored. In particular, the profits of Asia-Pacific refineries have returned to their pre-epidemic levels. Among this round of increases, diesel and jet fuel have risen most significantly. On the one hand, the recent epidemic situation in the Asia-Pacific region has improved. High-frequency travel indicators show that the mobility of Asia-Pacific traffic continues to increase. With the increase in the number of tourists, aviation fuel consumption is also recovering. On the other hand, the current energy crisis has increased the number of diesel-based vehicles. Alternative fuel consumption is different from European refineries. As profits are restored, refineries in some Asia-Pacific countries have begun to increase their operating loads, such as India, Japan, South Korea, etc. Therefore, this round of increase is more driven by the demand side. Rising oil drove up the crude oil end.
Guosen Futures: Worried about the tight global energy supply, oil prices may continue to rise
The temperature in the northern hemisphere has dropped. It is questioned whether Russia will increase its supply of natural gas to Europe. It is worried that global energy supply will continue to be tight. WTI has risen for four consecutive trading days, and Brent crude oil futures have risen to their highest level in three years. The crude oil output of OPEC and its production reduction allies is lower than expected. With the lifting of the travel ban for vaccinated travelers to the United States, demand is expected to rise, and demand for aviation fuel should rise. On the technical side, domestic oil prices pulled back slightly, waiting for support from below. Operational suggestion: You can try to do more in a light warehouse.
Guotai Junan Futures: Crude oil fluctuates short-term, but the strong pattern is not over
Judging from the current market risk appetite, as long as the overseas market is still in inflation rather than stagflation, even if the Fed starts to shrink its balance sheet, it is likely that it will not be able to prevent the upward trend of energy products. This means that the rise in commodity prices is far from over, and of course it also means that once commodity prices reach a peak in the medium term, they will fall sharply. Considering that in the short-term OPEC+ is still adopting a relatively conservative pace of increasing production according to the original plan, before there is no new unexpected increase in supply (such as OPEC+’s unplanned increase in production, the United States lifts sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports, and the United States shale oil recovers significantly beyond expectations, etc. ), the two oils in the outer disk are likely to continue to hit new highs. Among them, Brent is likely to break through $90/barrel. As for the domestic crude oil SC, the monthly difference in the past few weeks has continued to strengthen with the digestion of warehouse receipts, and it has now stabilized in the Back structure. With the further digestion of warehouse receipts in the future and the recovery of crude oil demand in Asia, the overall low valuation of SC is expected to remain in the deep back structure. The medium and long-term trend may continue to be stronger than the external two oils, and it may exceed 580 yuan/barrel in the future.