MILANO – Inflation is still slowing in Italy, remaining stable in the Eurozone. These are the data, highly awaited by observers because they can give important indications to the European Central Bank in view of the probable rate cut in June, which emerge from the provisional estimates of Istat and Eurostat
Prices in Italy
“In April, according to preliminary estimates, inflation will fall again, reaching 0.9%”, we read in the press release from the National Institute of Statistics. This is therefore a slowdown compared to 1.2%. annual rate recorded in March. 0.9% in April is also a slightly lower figure than the expectation of Unicredit analysts, who in the morning – before the official release of Istat – indicated a probable +1%. deceleration is mostly affected by the trend dynamics of product prices Unregulated energy goods (-13.9% from -10.3% in March) and of Transport related services (+2.9% from +4.5%). Prices also slowed slightly Food goods (+2.6% from +2.7%)”, explains Istat again. “On the other hand – he adds – the prices of Regulated energy goods show a strong trend recovery (+0.8% from -13.8%), despite the economic downturn (-8.2%)”.
Istat, GDP beats expectations: growth of 0.3% in the first quarter 30 April 2024
The monthly price change is indicated at 0.2%.
If we look at the so-called “core inflation”, the one that excludes the most volatile items such as energy and fresh food, the slowdown in the annual variation is from +2.3% to +2.2%. The descent also continues “shopping cart” which goes to +2.4% from +2.6%.
Prices in the Eurozone
The Eurozone data, however, is in line with expectations in Eurostat’s flash estimate it was 2.4%, the same level recorded in March. If energy, food, alcohol and tobacco are excluded, price growth moderates from 2.9% in March to 2.7%, slightly above the forecast of +2.6%.
For a homogeneous comparison with other countries, for Italy it is necessary to use the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) which increases by 0.6% on a monthly basis, due to the end of seasonal sales, of which the main index (NIC) does not take into account, which partly continued into March, and 1.0% on an annual basis (from +1.2% in the previous month).
The costs of flights and hotels
Commenting on the price data in Italy, the Codacons he notes that the “Easter effect” which had led to the rise in price lists with significant increases especially in the transport sector has come to an end”. The drop in inflation, however, “cannot be said to be satisfactory” and indeed for the association “retail prices not only must not increase, but should fall, registering a negative sign”. The National Consumers Union points the finger precisely at the growth in prices “which affects those who want to take days off”. says Massimiliano Dona, president of the National Consumers Union. “Very worrying increases in anticipation of the upcoming summer holidays”, says the association which puts it at the top of the top ten of monthly increases Hotels, motels and guesthouses which compared to March mark an astronomical leap of 9.8%. Silver medal for International flights which take off in just 30 days by 8.5% (on average passenger air transport rises by 7.2%) and things aren’t much better for the International holiday packagesin sixth place with +4.7%.
According to the president of Coop Marco Pedroni, “despite today’s data confirming a slowdown in inflation and a timid acceleration in GDP growth, Italians are struggling to perceive an improvement in the country’s economic conditions”. In fact, the Coop Research Office calculates that the delta between “perceived and measured inflation could be around 9 percentage points in 2024 (+1.3% expected in statistical measurements and +10.3% perceived), as if Italians had lost around 3600 euros per family in a year.” From the Federdistribuzione it is underlined that “in the coming months it will be important to recover a climate of confidence that can help restore impetus to consumption, which is fundamental both for the stability of the national economy and for the growth of businesses”.