But how much gas does Italy need? So much: we are talking about about 76.1 billion cubic meters, of which only 3.3, therefore just under 6%, are extracted in Italy. Almost half of the gas consumed in our country, that is 46%, is required for uses of the civil market, mainly heating of homes and families, and 36% is used by thermoelectric plants to produce electricity. The rest for industrial uses.
When there is the cold season, from October to April, the demand exceeds the gas transport capacity which is mainly concentrated via pipeline to Italy. And the Italian system, like others, has some storage which are filled in the summer when the demand is lower in the civil sector because there is no heating. The storage, on the other hand, is emptied during the winter period. As regards gas storage, the Minister of Ecological Transition Roberto Cingolani he assured that “we are between 84-85%, we must reach 90% in October: therefore, we are perfectly punctual, even slightly in advance”.
As for measures to diversify the origin of imported gas, the government has signed an agreement for the gradual increase in gas supplies fromAlgeriawhich will make it possible to make the most of the current available transport capacities of the pipeline that arrives in Sicilysupplying increasing volumes of gas already starting from 2022. Until a few months ago, Moscow was our main supplier (it covered 43% of imports), today the share of imported Russian gas has dropped to 23% (January-July 2022 ), leaving Algeria the place as the first supplier with 29%.
In the meantime, they have been increase in the short term imports from the Tapthe pipeline that allows Italy to import the natural gas extracted in Azerbaijan. Negotiations have also begun to double its transport capacity, which does not require technical interventions on the Italian section of the pipeline.
To accelerate the diversification of supplies, the government has also taken steps to guarantee supplies of LNG from new routes: up to 3.5 billion cubic meters fromEgyptup to 1.4 billion Smc from Qatarup to 4.6 billion cubic meters progressively from Congoand about 3.5 billion cubic meters from supplies under negotiation from other countries such as Angola, Nigeria, Mozambique, Indonesia e Libya.
In addition to the initiatives that interest the imports via pipeline and national storage, in the government’s plans there is above all the desire to increase the supply of gas infrastructures. Considering that the existing regasifiers are already fully utilized, new LNG regasification terminals are needed in particular. The choice was directed on floating structuresmore flexible and with shorter construction times than fixed structures, the so-called Fsru (Floating storage and regasification unit). The goal is to have the first floating regasification plant in operation as soon as possible, within the first months of 2023, and by 2024 also the second plant in order to be able to face the winter of 2023-2024 since, most likely , the storage will be fully used during the upcoming winter season and therefore it will be necessary to adequately replenish the reserves.
“The set of initiatives implemented will make it possible to replace approximately 30 billion cubic meters of Russian gas by 2025 with approximately 25 billion cubic meters of gas from various sources, bridging the gap with renewable sources and energy efficiency policies”, he insured on Minister Cingolani. Which has also opened in recent days to a possible increase in the extraction of national gas: “We are thinking of allowing the extraction of a small but significant quantity: 4-5 billion cubic meters, on existing fields without touching the Upper Adriatic “.
The government’s goal is not only to increase the supply of natural gas we need as a “transition fuel”, but also to invest in the development of renewable sources which remains a strategic factor for structurally reducing the demand for gas. (to the extent of approximately 2 billion Smc every 10 TWh installed approximately) as well as CO2 emissions. Therefore, the development of plants for the production of renewable electricity offshore and onshore is expected, for about 8 GW per year when fully operational from 2023. The trend is on paper on the rise compared to recent years. In particular, according to recent data relating to the newly authorized renewable power and / or auction winner with the Gse, more 9.3 GW are expected in operation between 2022 and 2023 of which 7 GW between January 2022 and March 2023, compared to less than 1 GW / year of previous years. In the meantime, new plants for self-production or for the sale of energy on the market will continue to be authorized.
Finally, in the sector of renewable gas, great impetus was given to the development of biomethane, which has a potential of approximately 2.5 billion cubic meters by 2026 but gradually increasing as early as 2022, as well as investments in favor of the production and use of hydrogen. Overall, all the diversification measures introduced will make it possible in the medium term, starting from the second half of 2024, to drastically reduce dependence on Russian gas, and in any case to reduce the use of gas in general.
Goldman Sachs optimistic about winter
Gas prices are expected to more than halve this winter, and European countries would be able to go through the winter months after having “successfully solved” the supply problems due to Moscow’s retaliation. This is predicted by a report by Goldman Sachs, which expects prices on the wholesale gas market in Europe to drop to less than € 100 per megawatt hour at the end of the first quarter of 2023 from around € 215, assuming normal weather conditions. A forecast that drastically cuts the prices expected by the American investment bank, from a previous level of around 213 euros. According to Goldman Sachs, Gazprom’s decision to shut down flows through the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline indefinitely did not prevent Europe from “successfully solving the puzzle” created by Moscowwith a combination of the destruction of gas demand and supply from other suppliers that led to “an above average stock buildup”, at around 90% at the end of October, with stockpiles still at 20% at the end of March of capacity: numbers that would take your breath away after the emergency, and would give time for one diversification of supplies.