Xiangcai Securities: A-share market’s money-making effect blows out the market outlook focuses on the five major sectors
Today, the stock indexes of the two cities have gapped and opened higher. They have maintained a strong upward trend in the early trading; the stock indexes continue to maintain a high and strong consolidation state in the afternoon; hot spots on the disk: mineral products, general machinery, semiconductors, industrial machinery, intelligent machines, Geothermal energy, organic silicon, high-end equipment, industrial interconnection, electrical instrumentation and other sectors performed strongly; in general: today the market is showing a sharp rise in the adjustment market.
We are determined to see more, and we have never changed the attitude of too many heads. Even if there is an exponential adjustment in the market, we do not believe that the cornerstone of the bullish atmosphere will be shaken. However, what we look long on is not the index, but the structural long market. Because of this, we have been repeatedly advocating the idea of diluting the index and focusing on hot spots. If you are still struggling with the ups and downs at the index level, it means that your thinking may be out of date.
It is precisely because of this determination that we have never paid too much attention to any fluctuations that are irrelevant to the overall situation. We are more likely to bring rational hope to investors. The market is changing and investors’ thinking should change accordingly. The purpose is Follow the market and follow the trend. Most people and most institutions are ants in front of the market. All we can do is to adapt and fight the changes in the capital market, which will only break our bodies.
Last Friday, when the market panic spread again, Fan Bo from Xiangcai Securities devoted some pens to the article “Two sets of historical data send heavy signals” to emphasize the issue of who can lead the market in the later period. It was clearly stated that when the market ushered in the upside in the later stage, the growth rate of the Growth Enterprise Market was still even greater. The purpose of expressing the above views is to hope that investors can view the entire market from a higher perspective and not be disturbed by the current short-term fluctuations.
Looking at the performance of today’s disk, all indexes have risen significantly, and the ChiNext Composite Index (399102) has soared by more than 3%, reflecting the sharpness of forwards. It can be said that this trend is very similar to our prediction last week. Coincide. The profit-making effect is even more blowout today. Nearly 200 stocks in the two markets have their daily limit, and there are as many as 80 double-enterprise stocks that exceed 10%. This shows how strong the bull market today is.In addition, the hot direction is still the hydrogen energy, military industry, and secondaryNew crotch, Organic silicon, etc., today’s newly emerging industrial mother machine concepts also need to be focused on, among which the second-new stocks are the top priority.
In conclusion: today’s market blowout has regained investors’ confidence. There has been no change in the large structural long market of A shares. It is not that the bull market is better than the bull market. There will be more bull stocks running wild in the later period. The index will fluctuate forever and the bull stocks continue to emerge. , This is the biggest benefit of A shares under the registration system, because there are more opportunities.
Hexin Investment Consulting: Index soars high-end manufacturing collective counterattack
The index opened higher, the market’s enthusiasm all the way up, and the middle retreated slightly, but the overall upswing situation was not changed. The environment of the big ups and downs from the trend has not changed. The mood is still in a period of severe volatility, and the offensive is also required. Keeping a trace of clarity, lithium batteries, petroleum mining, military industry, industry 4.0, and high-end equipment have skyrocketed across the board. The corresponding decline list is only the big financial sector underperforming. Compared with last week’s surge, the financial sector is indeed embarrassing. Technically, the index opened higher and moved higher, but it is still in the turbulent phase after the decline. Now it stands on support. If it can step back and stabilize and confirm, the market is expected to continue to improve.
The turning point in the market has a great correlation with the external trend, especially the collective rebound of Chinese concept stocks in the U.S. stocks. It also gave the long-repressed A-shares a chance to turn around. However, it is difficult to confirm how long it will last. Although there are continuous opportunities in several directions, there are still great uncertainties in the remaining points, especially after the rise today, whether it is semiconductors, lithium batteries, salt lakes, or rare resources Fortunately, they have almost rebounded to their previous highs. As for how much room there is, whether it can break through is very difficult, so we must be excited about the big drop, but we must be cautious after the big rise.
Speaking of the continuous sector, today’s high-end equipment manufacturing performance is exceptionally strong. In fact, this sector has already shown itself last Friday.Huazhong CNC，Huachen Equipment，Hengda, Etc. It has risen sharply for two consecutive days. This is mainly due to a recent meeting held by relevant departments, which mentioned the vigorous development of the basic research system, especially the concept of industrial mother machine, and the industrial mother machine refers to the machine tool, which is the basis of industrial manufacturing. The development of machine tools is very important, and my country’s machine tools are facing a pattern of large but not strong. There is a foundation for future development, and breakthroughs will become the main theme.
Hexin’s point of view: There is a big chance for a big drop, a big risk for a big rise. Remember this point. In an unexpected direction, there will be a big rise at this time. You must lighten your position appropriately, but for continuous new concepts, especially policy support At this point, if you have the right opportunity, you must get on the car decisively. At present, the industrial master machine is expected to continue to be strong.
Jufeng Investment Advisor: The rebound exceeds expectations! Opportunities in the individual stock stage or reappear!
Viewpoint: The signs of stagflation and overheating are gradually being released. Although the economic recovery is still in progress, the data shows that the recovery has begun to slow down. At the same time, the inflection point of global liquidity has been established, and domestic liquidity is still in an overall marginal tightening trend compared to before. This is not very good news for the market. Moreover, after the decline since mid-February, the bull market pattern is also expected to undergo major changes. The bull market is still not over, but it has entered the late stage of the bull market, and the overall opportunity is not obvious. While paying attention to the overall risk, you can play the structural game appropriately. Opportunity.
Today, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets both opened high and oscillated upward after the opening. The intraday plates all went up, driving the index all the way up, successfully breaking through the suppression of multiple moving averages and approaching 3,500 points. Throughout the day, almost all sectors have strengthened. Among them, the national defense industry led the rise, mining, leisure services, mechanical equipment, electrical equipment, media, textiles and apparel led the rise, while household appliances, steel,Real estateAs well as the weak performance of non-bank financials.
The market opened higher and rebounded across the board. This is actually in line with market expectations. After all, boosted by many good news over the weekend, the market rebound should be expected.But in terms of the specific structure, it was far beyond the market’s expectations. In particular, financial stocks did not perform well, andSubject matterOn the contrary, the stocks rebounded significantly, this is still somewhat different.
Looking back at the market adjustments since last week, there are actually several core aspects: one is the pressure of on-market financing, includingChina TelecomListing and previousNingde eraThe impact of the huge financing sentiment of the US; on the other hand, the pressure on the expected economic downturn due to poor economic data; in addition, the external turbulence, especially the geopolitics and the large outflow of foreign capital, has led to a downturn in market sentiment.Of course, in this process, there areKweichow Moutai、Hengrui MedicineAndQianhe Flavor IndustryWaiting for the drag of leading varieties to kill.
At present, under multiple pressures, risks are released after the market has experienced a period of decline, and sentiment is gradually picking up, especially with the economic recovery trend and the support of reasonable and stable liquidity, the nature of the market’s positive trend Nothing has changed. Therefore, although the current market structure is outstanding, after a period of downturn, the market still has repetitions. Under the short-term rebound, the opportunities for individual stocks may appear in stages, which is more suitable for re-playing the game.
But there are still several areas that need to be paid attention to: First, the downward trend of the center of gravity has not changed in the second half of the year. In other words, the overall decline in the second half of the year, whether we can usher in the new market in the later period, we need to wait for the trend to change, and before there is a change, investors are not recommended to chase the rise or take a heavy position at will; secondly, we must pay attention to the expectations of easing policies. If inflation declines, then under the downward pressure on the economy, easing expectations may be raised again, which is also good for the market and is conducive to the formation of the low point in the second half of the year.
Therefore, even if there is a chance, it is recommended that the stage of individual stock game be the mainstay. In terms of overall positions, it is recommended to wait and see and wait patiently for the establishment of a new market direction. It is worth noting that the current boom in technology stocks is still high, and there are still repeated changes after differentiation.PerformanceUnder the boost, high-quality targets can still consider buying low; and the current rebound of blue chip stocks is still treated as an oversold rebound. It is recommended to wait and see if the market is trending.
Rongwei Securities:Shanghai IndexTo regain the 5-day moving average long and short competition is fierce
The Shanghai and Shenzhen markets opened higher and higher, with changes in the coal, machinery, petroleum, military and photovoltaic themes during the session. As of midday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3477.13, up 1.45%; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange closed at 1,4535.9, up 1.98%.
Technically, the Shanghai Index is still in the box structure between 3300 and 3630 points, and the 3500 line is the center of the box. At present, the trend of the moving average system is still not optimistic. The short-term and medium-term moving averages are suppressed significantly. Today, the Shanghai Stock Index broke through the 5-day moving average and there was a certain selling pressure above it. The recent market trading volume has maintained a relatively high level, reflecting the large gap between longs and shorts.
It is comprehensively judged that the market is in a stage of long-short game melee, and there is a high degree of uncertainty. In the short and medium term, it is necessary to confirm the effectiveness of the cabinet. Long-term need to wait for trading volume to shrink and confirm the bottom after long and short balances. It is recommended to control the position and lay out the dips.
China Securities Investment:Growth Enterprise Market IndexSoaring 3.16%, the turnover of the two cities exceeded 1 trillion yuan for 24 consecutive trading days
On August 23, the three major A-share indexes opened higher and moved higher; the ChiNext index rose strongly, approaching the 3300 mark at the close.
According to the data, as of the close,Shanghai Composite IndexRose 1.45% to 3,477.13 points;Shenzhen Component IndexIncreased 1.98% to 14,535.88 points; ChiNext index rose 3.16% to 3,293.77 points. The turnover of the two cities reached 1322.5 billion yuan at the close, breaking through 1 trillion yuan for 24 consecutive trading days.
At the closing of the 28 industry sectors of Shenwan First Class, there were only household appliances,Real estateThe sector fell, while the rest all rose; the defense industry, electrical equipment, and mechanical equipment sectors ranked among the top gainers.
In the concept sector, as of the close, the machine tool, superhard materials, and general machinery concept sectors had the largest gains; the trust heavy warehouse, PTA, and air transportation concept sectors had the largest declines.
Haitong SecuritiesSaid that in the second half of the year, the profits of A-share companies continued to rise, and the macro and micro-level efforts were made together, and the market may have exponential opportunities. In terms of configuration,Haitong SecuritiesIt is believed that the smart manufacturing sector is expected to remain strong, and the traditional manufacturing industry in the middle and lower reaches will usher in opportunities for repair; combining fundamentals and policies,Brokerage, Real estate,BankAnd other low-valued sectors are also worthy of attention.
Deutsche Securities Co., Ltd.: grasp the market rhythm after the general rise or the timing of the exchange of positions
The two markets rebounded sharply. The three major indexes opened higher and moved higher unilaterally. The ChiNext index rose 3.16% and the Shanghai index rose 1.4%. Theme stocks are active and have a strong earning effect. Market sentiment has picked up significantly, with more than 3,700 stocks in the two cities buzzing, and high-prosperity sectors such as photovoltaics continue to be sought after. The transaction volume between the two cities once again exceeded one trillion yuan.
After two phases of adjustments, the current market stage risks are basically released. Under the economic recovery trend and overall stability of liquidity, the overall market outlook has not changed significantly. The unfavorable factors at the stage have also been concentrated recently. After the index retracement and the decline of the sector, the release of sentiment is basically coming to an end. Although the economic recovery has slowed, the overall recovery trend is still there, and liquidity has remained relatively stable, and the overall market support And the boost is still there. The structural opportunities in the second half and the second half can still be expected.
Qian Kun Investment: How can I see the rainbow without experiencing wind and rain? Adhere to the main line and gain more than today
Market analysis
It was originally expected to step back on 3400. It was unexpected that a few positives during the weekend directly led to today’s situation. In the short term, it is very good, but in the medium term, the index and the index will continue to follow the original trend.
In the first half of this week, the probability is still between 3400-3500. After that, we still have to choose a direction. It is very likely that a direction will be given this week. The index is still a condition that needs attention.
Money flowTo
Today, the turnover of the two cities is 1,349.6 billion. There is no problem. It is a very good number. I will talk about it when there are problems in the future. In terms of funding style, today is a day when all the tickets are flying together. The number of companies that have risen is 3,652, and the number of companies that have fallen is 688. From this data, it is hard to see. From the increase, it is obvious that today is still a structural market. , The main line style is absolutely dominant.
Whether it’s in the big ticketNorthern Rare EarthStill, the daily limit of a pile of lithium batteries in the small ticket reflects this characteristic. Of course, a new theme industrial host machine has been released. At this time, the market can still add a new thing. It can only be said that the current market is better than imagined.
Hot spot
The concept of industrial master machine turned out, and the direction of industrial software is also very good. There are two perspectives on how to look at these sectors. In the short-term, today’s explosive power is the daily limit tide. This is in line with the strong requirements, but the problem is that it is very difficult to get on the bus today.
This kind of flat-ground sector can refer to the brokerages last week. It doesn’t matter if you miss it today. If it can really strengthen, then there will be opportunities to get on the car, and if it drops sharply like a brokerage, it would be a pity to miss today.
Besides the main line and the non-main line, there is only one current main line and that is lithium batteries. If Friday is a structural rebound, then today is a further strengthening. It is a structural skyrocket. Don’t be bullish a lot, but the best rise In addition to the new theme of the new industrial mother machine, it is still the front row of the lithium mine in the lithium battery.
Whether it isTianqi LithiumStillSalt Lake, This afternoon, it rushed higher and lowered again, for the fourth time. Is there a problem? No problem, if the predators take advantage of the situation to escape, there will be results. But from the current choices, I will definitely not choose cheaper consumption and liquor.
Outlook
Where is the buying point for today’s day? It can only be the opening. If the opening is not a good day, if you have not prepared in advance or are not decisive enough, then this kind of good day of others may make you more uncomfortable or helpless. Because after 10 o’clock, there are red lanterns everywhere, how to choose stocks and where to buy, these are all questions, and I am afraid that the eyes of the election will be dizzy when they want to get in the car.
Who does it belong to today? Those who insist on being the main line and stick to lithium batteries are not modest here. I said last week that we must resolutely focus on lithium batteries for a whole week. The only chance for certainty is this. Those who read my article must be clear. Those who don’t believe it can. Feel free to review the title and content of the day. Buying is at a divergence and selling is at a climax. Days like today are for you to sell at a profit. In the short-term, it is the checkout to make money and leave, regardless of the size of the funds.
I have been talking about the term structural feature. This is the reason why I have never been greedy for cheapness and never bargained for making baijiu, because the bottom can only be a point, and I don’t have the ability to grasp this point, and there is no need to do so. It must be a stronger ability to see the trend clearly. Closer to home, the lithium battery has risen and fallen again today, for the fourth time. What do you think? What to do? Everyone is very concerned.
The important thing is not to predict, but to make a plan: (1) It is better to go high and fall back than not. (2) This is the absolute main line that is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and it is the most certain thing. (3) There was a climax today. In the short term, we have to wait and observe. Don’t panic too much about the fall in the late trading today. This kind of divergence does not mean the end (4) The continuous rise and fall.Main forceIs there the possibility of taking advantage of the situation to leave the market?Of course there are, but if they leave, the next sector will definitely weaken. Otherwise, it means that they have not left. It can be seen. (5) It is still the method of proof by contradiction. Before there is a real “weak” signal, I will continue to assume that it is still “strong” (6) Pay attention to the rhythm, fromTibet MiningTibet Urban InvestmentToTianqi LithiumUp to nowSalt Lake, This is called the rotation of A1-A2-A3. Whether there is or not, you will know at a glance.
(Source of the article:Oriental wealthResearch Center)
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