The latest confirmation came just today, with the PIL Usa which fell beyond the expectations of1,5%. Yet another clear signal about the slowdown in the global economy triggered by the unfortunate combination of events between the tail of a pandemic, the protracted war in the heart of Europe and too high inflation. Despite the many negative news, it is possible to look beyond this phase by betting on five banking stocks (which rank among the winners of this crisis). To report them is an analysis Filippo Diodovich, Senior Market Strategist of IG Italia.
It has now been established that i fundamental macroeconomic they are not the best. Strong and growing inflationary pressures are increasingly squeezing corporate profit margins. Furthermore, the monetary tightening of the central banks – combined with the geopolitical tensions – is further complicating the macro picture which appears very bleak. The uncertainty of the markets also manifested itself in the deep declines of the main equity indices – one step away from the bear market – and in the sharply rising spread, in particular that BTP Bundnow above 200 basis points.
See i losers generated by this new order are many and varied, i winners instead they are few but among these there are the titles of compartment banking, historically favored by high interest rates. “To better face this difficult period, we suggest five stocks that can outperform and shield any losses incurred so far: Banco BPM, UniCredit, Intesa Sanpaolo, ING and HSBC ”, highlighted the IG Italia expert in his analysis.
Three Italians among IG’s 5 best picks
BPM bank. According to IG, the Milanese group could show big upward price tears after some rumors that see it participating in an attempt to merge with the French group Credit Agricole. The rumors were confirmed by the CEO of the French group in Italy, Giampiero Maioli, who reinforced market expectations after the bank consolidated its stake in the Milanese group up to 9.2% in April. The French group has explicitly expressed its interest in Banco BPM, enticed by the performance of the bancassurance activities, so as to implement a horizontal integration that allows for the creation of important synergies between the two.
Unicredit. The bank in Piazza Gae Aulenti benefited positively from the quarterly results, which were more positive than expected. In fact, it seems that investors have almost forgotten the strong exposure of the group to the Russian market – where Unicredit has been present since 2005 with about 4 thousand employees and 70 branches – as well as the risks to which it is subjected.
However, the stock – from the lows of € 7.85 hit on 9 May – has rebounded nearly 33% to its current € 10.45. CEO Andrea Orcel outlined the future strategy of the group which aims to consolidate activities in the retail sector together with a marked development of the CIB (Corporate and Investment Banking) division of which Orcel is a veteran. “In conclusion, we believe that the stock can benefit from the new macro scenario and continue with the bullish trend in the short to medium term,” asserts Diodovich.
Intesa Sanpaolo. The largest Italian banking group benefited greatly from the announcement of the quarterly results on the stock exchange, in line with consensus expectations. Furthermore, the bank has demonstrated its solidity thanks to a quarterly net profit that reached € 1.67 billion and to the capitalization – well above the regulatory requirements – which recorded a common equity tier 1 ratio (CET1) of 13.8 %. Finally, IG highlights how the generous dividend and the share price support plan also create a positive future outlook for the bank.